The Toronto Maple Leafs are up 3-0 in the first round and nobody knows how to act right now.
Toronto Maple Leafs fans are excited, but confused because this doesn't happen to us. For the first time since 2001, the team is on the verge of a sweep and could have the luxury of getting a lot of rest inbetween the first and second round, which would be a plesant surprise.
The first three games have been close, but Toronto has clearly been the better team, so it's not shocking that they're up 3-0 after what we've watched. However, there's a world where Ottawa is up 2-1 at this point, as two of the games have reached overtime. As much as we could look at the what-if's, none of that matters and the Leafs are 13 wins away from a Stanley Cup.
Since this team hasn't lost yet and is winning 3-2, instead of typically losing in that fashion, the term "team of destiny" has been thrown out there. People have said that Craig Berube is this magical coach that has changed the philosophy of the Leafs and is the biggest reason why they're finally going to breakthrough, but is he really the main reason?
The defense and goaltender are definitely improved, but the core of this roster has been the same for the past few years, so I really don't think as much has changed as we think. Personally, I think the Leafs ability to win the Atlantic Division is the biggest factor why they're having success.
The Leafs won the Atlantic Division with only 108 points this year. That's the lowest number of points needed to win the division since 2017, and Toronto has actually secured more points in previous seasons without winning the division. The Leafs had 115 points in 2022 and 111 in 2023, and had to face Tampa Bay both times as a result.
Leafs True Test Will Come Against Florida or Tampa Bay
The Leafs lost in seven games to Tampa Bay in 2022 and then beat the Lightning in six games in 2023. In 2022, Tampa Bay actually reached the Stanley Cup Finals, and then in 2023, the Leafs lost in five games to the Florida Panthers in the second round, who also went to the Stanley Cup Finals. So, in reality, although the team lost to Tampa Bay in the first round and Florida in the second round, you could argue that each series could have been an Eastern Confernce Finals match-up, but unfortunately the NHL doesn't have a 1 vs. 8 format anymore so these series had to happen earlier than they should have.
Essentially what I'm trying to say is that although the Leafs have lost the majority of thier first round match-ups, it hasn't been because the team isn't good or because their coach couldn't figure out the right defensive strucutre. In fact, for the first time since probably the Montreal series (I know they ended up blowing a 3-1 series lead), this is the first true first-round match-up the Leafs have seen.
The Senators are an inferior team and by winning the division, the Leafs were finally able to play a correct first-round opponent. When you win the division, you should play the most inferior team but unfortunately the Atlantic Division is so good that any team who plays in the 2 vs. 3 match-up ends up playing a team that is just as good as them, so a team always goes home earlier than they probably would in a traditonal 1 vs. 8 format.
Hopefully with an easy first round match-up, the Leafs can now build a ton of momentum and confidence, which will boost them into the Conference Finals for the first time since 2002 or even better, Stanley Cup Finals for the first time since 1967.