Scoring goals during the regular season has never been a problem for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Over the past number of seasons, the Toronto Maple Leafs have consistently been one of the higher ranked goal scoring teams in the National Hockey League.
During the 2023-2024 regular season, the Leafs scored 298 goals to finish second behind the league-leading Colorado Avalanche. Last year, the Leafs recorded 235 even-strength goals topping the NHL in that category.
Implementing new coach Craig Berube's system and stellar goaltending from Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll has greatly improved the team's defensive numbers.
The improved defense has come at the expense of the Leafs offense. Or so the story goes. However, a detailed look reveals that not that much has changed. The Leafs are slightly better defensively, and slightly worse overall offensively, but the differences have been exaggerated by incredibly goalies and an Auston Matthews injury.
Other than Auston Matthews' injury, the Leafs are scoring at a reasonable rate, though their lack of scoring from the bottom six is killing them. It's hard, however, to blame this on Berube's system when the players who are supposed to be scoring, are scoring. This was a problem during the playoffs in each of the past two years.
An unfamiliar obstacle is holding the Toronto Maple Leafs back
While the roster is more likely the issue - rather than the system - the Leafs are not doing the one thing they've been well known for doing a lot of: scoring at 5v5.
The Maple Leafs production at even strength has dramatically dropped since last season's lofty numbers. Toronto currently ranks 23rd in 5 vs 5 scoring. Their 50 goals in that situation are well behind the Washington Capitals who have scored a league-best 75 goals while playing 5 vs 5.
To put that into perspective, most teams have played around twenty-five games. The Leafs score about a goal less per game than the Capitals, well below average in this category. But, keep in mind that while all this is worth knowing, Auston Matthews missed ten games, was presumably playing injured before that, and is the NHL's best 5v5 goal scorer.
Contrary to that number, Toronto currently ranks as the second-stingiest team at 5 vs. 5, giving up 37 goals. Only the Minnesota Wild have allowed fewer (34). The trick for the Leafs is maintaining their strong defensive play while regaining their even-strength prowess - or, rather, the trick is to score more when the regression inevitably comes for the goalies.
It hasn't helped that the Maple Leafs have been hit with injuries to many of their forwards. Auston Matthews, Max Domi, Max Pacioretty, Matthew Knies, and Bobby McMann have all missed time, but clearly giving so many minutes with Domi, Robertson, Kampf, Holmberg and Reaves is killing their ability to put the puck in the net.
Domi went scoreless in nineteen games. Nick Robertson has two goals on the season. David Kampf, Pontus Holberg and Ryan Reaves just flat-out do not score, and the Maple Leafs are getting little help from their blue line in the goal-scoring department.
With many players returning to the lineup, cohesion must be found among the forward lines to improve the team's even-strength scoring. The Leafs can't have only their top players producing if they hope to win the Atlantic Division and set themselves up for postseason success.
It is beyond obvious at this point that the Toronto Maple Leafs need to look outside the organization for scoring help.