The 2026 NHL Draft Lottery is Tuesday at 7:00 p.m. and the Toronto Maple Leafs have the fifth-highest odds at winning first overall. But how does it work?
There are a total of 1,000 combinations of four numbers that will be drawn in order from a big machine that is mixing up a bunch of little ping-pong balls. Each team owns a certain number of those combinations and if one of theirs is chosen -- as in, the four numbers that are drawn is a combination that they have -- then they win the lottery.
The Leafs have 85 of the 1,000 combinations -- therefore, 8.5% chance of winning the first-overall pick. But it's not fun to just look at the percentages and odds. Let's really dive deep and check out the specific and exact number combinations that the Leafs have.
1 2 4 5
1 2 4 12
1 2 4 13
1 2 6 7
1 3 4 10
1 3 5 7
1 3 5 14
1 3 6 11
1 3 9 13
1 3 9 14
1 4 7 8
1 5 6 10
1 5 7 10
1 5 8 10
1 5 9 10
1 5 10 14
1 6 7 14
1 7 11 14
1 8 10 11
1 8 10 13
1 8 12 14
1 9 11 13
1 11 12 14
*big breath in* Okay, let's look at the combinations starting with the number two, and so on.
2 3 4 5
2 3 4 11
2 3 4 14
2 3 5 13
2 3 6 14
2 3 9 10
2 3 9 12
2 4 5 9
2 4 8 14
2 4 10 11
2 5 8 13
2 5 12 13
2 6 9 11
2 6 11 13
2 6 12 13
2 7 8 9
2 7 11 12
2 8 9 11
2 8 9 12
2 8 10 11
2 8 11 12
2 8 12 13
3 4 5 10
3 4 5 12
3 4 11 12
3 5 9 12
3 6 8 12
3 8 9 12
3 8 12 13
3 12 13 14
4 5 6 7
4 5 7 13
4 5 11 13
4 5 12 14
4 7 9 13
4 7 10 11
4 7 11 12
4 7 11 13
4 8 12 14
4 9 10 11
5 6 7 8
5 6 8 14
5 7 12 14
5 9 11 13
5 10 11 12
6 7 9 12
6 7 12 13
6 8 9 13
6 8 13 14
6 9 11 14
6 12 13 14
7 8 10 12
7 8 11 13
7 10 11 13
7 10 12 13
7 10 12 14
8 10 12 14
9 10 11 14
9 11 12 13
Well that was fun.
If any of those four numbers are drawn in that order, then the Maple Leafs are going to win one of the draft lotteries and either the first- or second-overall pick for the 2026 NHL Draft.
Let's cross our fingers.
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