Well Leafs fans, your wish has come true. You got Florida. After closing out the Battle of Ontario in six games, the Toronto Maple Leafs will face the Florida Panthers in Round 2 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, a rematch from 2023.
If there's one thing from their result two playoffs ago that this Leaf team will most certainly want to change, it's to make this year's matchup against Florida more competitive. Not only should the Leafs make an effort to make this series last longer than five games, but they should also look to score more than two goals in a single game.
The Leafs scored two goals in each of the five games they played all the way back in 2023, against the Panthers. Production was an issue for the Leafs in the playoffs two years ago, especially from their core four, who combined for nine points in five games against the Panthers. It's something they'll definitely look to improve upon this time around; heading into Game 1 against the Panthers, the core four have a combined 29 points.
Like 2023, their production will be tested, among other things, such as their ability to stay out of the penalty box. Round 2 between the Maple Leafs and Panthers gets underway Monday night, so let's look at the five Panthers the Leafs should be most worried about.
The Rats
You can bet that during Game 2 of the third period between the Panthers and Lightning, Panthers general manager Bill Zito was smiling ear to ear somewhere in Amalie Arena when he saw forwards Matthew Tkachuck, Sam Bennett, and Brad Marchand simultaneously chirping the Lightning bench.
You might think Zito envisioned this scenario when he traded a conditional second-round pick to the Boston Bruins in exchange for Marchand at this year's NHL Trade Deadline, and it's a scenario the Leafs should prepare to face for at least four games.
Stemming from their series against the Lightning, the three agitators have combined for eight drawn penalties along with 14 points.
Discipline is something Leafs head coach Craig Berube will preach to his team heading into this series against a Panthers team that will drive hard to the net, instigate between the whistles, and try to knock opponents off their game, which is what they were able to do to Lightning forward Jake Guentzel. Guentzel took the second most penalty minutes (6) of any Lightning forward, along with his team-leading six points.
Guentzel's two roughing penalties and one slashing penalty show how effective the Panthers were at disrupting the skilled forward, a disruption the Leafs can't afford to affect some of their star players, especially the ones that kill penalties.
Aleksander Barkov
Let's hope for the sake of Auston Matthews and, quite literally, the Toronto Maple Leafs that Barkov is still trying to find his footing after the hit he received from Tampa Bay Lightning forward Brandon Hagel in Game 2 of round 1 because his knack for shutting down opposing teams best players is glaring.
Three-time Art Ross Trophy winner and one-time Hart Trophy winner Nikita Kucherov exits this year's playoffs with zero goals in his last 15 playoff games. Ten of those games were games where he was primarily matched up against Barkov's line.
Along with limiting Kucherov in the first round, Barkov's line was also able to keep Kucherov's centerman, Brayden Point, to only two points in the first round. The two-time Selke winner doesn't just limit Lightning forwards, either.
Back in 2023, when the Leafs and Panthers last met in the second round, Barkov was able to limit Auston Matthews to two points all series. According to MoneyPuck.com, the Matthew's line currently generates the team's best 5-on-5 expected goals per 60 minutes.
If the Leafs want any chance of advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals, they'll want to avoid the Barkov line from matching up against the Matthew's line as much as possible, but you can bet that's a matchup Panthers head coach Paul Maurice will welcome.
Number One D-Pair
Before acquiring Marchand from the Bruins at this year's Trade Deadline, Zito acquired an All-Star caliber defenseman in Seth Jones from the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for a young netminder in Spencer Knight and a 2026 conditional 1st-round pick.
It was an all-in move from a GM of a team in need of a number one defenceman after losing their number one defenceman, Brandon Montour, to free agency last summer.
The move jeopardized their draft pick pool as they won't be picking in the first round until 2027, and it also gave away their 2019 first-round selection in Knight, at just 24 years old, who looked to be their goalie of the future. If there's one thing for sure, it's that Zito is piecing together this Panthers team to win now, and Jones is definitely contributing to that.
Throughout their four games paired together this playoffs, Niko Mikkola and Jones have the best 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 minutes out of any pairing this playoffs. This pairing could be one of the reasons why Florida owns the second-best penalty kill in the playoffs, and it could be Florida's outlier for repeating their ability to limit Toronto to two goals per game.
Depth Production
Out of all the things to worry about for this Leafs team when looking at this Panthers lineup, their forward corps might top the rest.
Florida gets top-to-bottom production from their forwards. Outside of Florida's fourth line, each one of Florida's lines has an expected 5-on-5 goals per 60 of at least 2.18, which is better than every line of Toronto's except their top line. The Panthers have six players with five or more points, while the Leafs have four players with five or more points from, you guessed it, their core four.
After the core four, Morgan Reilly and Matthew Knies have three points each, the same amount of points that Panthers defenceman Nate Schmidt has in fewer games. That means Schmidt has more points than each third-liner on the Leafs, something Florida doesn't have an issue with.
Florida's third line of Marchand, Anton Lundell, and Eutu Luostarinen have a combined 14 points this playoffs, along with their team's best 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 minutes mark (1.66), that's much better than Toronto's third line mark (5.74).
Toronto's ability to limit Ottawa from scoring goals shows as their fourth and second lines allowed less than two expected 5-on-5 goals the whole series, but that will be tested against the Panthers.
Sergei Bobrovsky
What's the saying? "Every round gets harder," it should be, "with every round, the goalie becomes more difficult to beat." Although Linus Ullmark shut the Leafs out in Game 5, Ullmark had a mediocre series, and you can't expect Bobrovsky to do the same.
Perhaps the most intriguing matchup of this series will likely come from the goalies. Bobrovsky and Anthony Stolarz come into this series tied with the same save percentage (.901) and goals-against average (2.21), per NHL.com.
Both goalies play behind teams who defend very well, as Toronto has the 4th best 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 (2.04), while Florida has the 7th best of that mark (2.16). It could boil down to experience, which Stolarz will continually lack to his competitors, but Bobrovsky's playoff experience shouldn't be downplayed, especially against the Leafs.
Bobrovsky finished the 2023 second round against the Leafs with a .938 save percentage and an incredible 50-save performance, making him the second goalie in Panther history to achieve the feat alongside John Vanbiesbrouck.
The Leafs will hope that the wear and tear of last year's cup run will catch up to the 36-year-old because those statistics don't look too good for the blue and white.