3 ways NHL expansion directly affects the Toronto Maple Leafs
With expansion rumours that just won't go away, it's worth taking a deep look into how adding new NHL franchises directly impacts the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Toronto Maple Leafs could be directly impacted if the NHL decides to pursue further expansion. Earlier this season, NHL commission Gary Bettman publicly shot down rumours that the NHL was looking to add new franchises to the league.
The biggest way that the Toronto Maple Leafs would be impacted by expansion would be with the addition of a third team in Ontario, or a second team in the GTA, although that remains an unlikely situation.
The NHL's latest team, the Seattle Kraken, evened out the field of NHL clubs to 32 in 2021, but despite denials from the league, rumours persist that the NHL will continue to expand.
So, let’s take a closer look at what further NHL expansion means to the Toronto Maple Leafs and how it directly impacts the team, regardless of where the new clubs are located.
3 ways NHL expansion directly impacts the Toronto Maple Leafs
Potential divisional and conference realignment
There have been various cities rumoured to be in the running for an expansion team. Salt Lake City was one of the finalists but was passed over for Seattle. Now, Utah has their team albeit is relocated one. Nevertheless, other cities are frontrunners to get teams.
For instance, Kansas City is high on the list. So, is Houston. Those two markets have led bids from other cities like Quebec City and, believe it or not, Atlanta. Plus, there Arizona Coyotes are still on the books though the team does not practically exist.
As you can see, the proposed cities are candidates for the Western Conference. Kansas City and Houston would play in the Central Division. Ditto for the Coyotes 2.0. Even if the league added Atlanta and Quebec City in an effort to balance things out, the geographical regions would be unbalanced.
The solution would be realignment. That situation potentially opens the Leafs moving from the Atlantic Division to, say, the Central. The Leafs already played in the Central Division back in the 90s, specifically from 1993 to 1998. Then, the league decided to move the Leafs back to the Eastern Conference in 1999.
So, what would happen if the league decided to bump the Leafs to the Central, Utah to the Pacific, and Atlanta into the Atlantic? The Leafs would now be neighbours with the Dallas Stars, Colorado Avalanche, and Winnipeg Jets, among other clubs like the Nashville Predators, Chicago Blackhawks, and Minnesota Wild.
Then again, the league could go off the deep end and create another entirely new division with local rivals such as the Detroit Red Wings, Buffalo Sabres, Ottawa Senators, and Montreal Canadiens. The point here is that there is no telling how realignment could impact the Leafs until the league decides which cities get clubs and how many will enter the league.
That decision could directly impact whether the Leafs stay put in their current division or if they get moved to another locale.
Expansion draft concerns
With expansion clubs come expansion drafts. The last expansion draft ahead of the Seattle Kraken entering the league was particularly complex for the Leafs. The league allowed teams to protect 10 players, either seven forwards, three defencemen, and one netminder, or nine skaters and one goaltender.
The Leafs opted for the 7-3-1 structure. In fact, Kyle Dubas at the time traded for Jared McCann in order to expose him purposely in order to avoid risking any other unprotected player.
This time around, the Leafs have plenty of options that expansion teams could try to pluck. While we won’t get into the math of who the Leafs would protect this time around, it’s fair to say that the potential names on the protected list should be cause for debate.
Now, suppose there are multiple expansion drafts over the course of three or four years. Say, one every two years? What would that do to the Leafs roster construction and cap structure? Of course, that prospect would affect all 32 current teams, not just Toronto. But for the Leafs in particular, it could be a nightmare trying to figure out what to do with the roster as expansion drafts loom.
That model worked with Vegas. It sort of worked with Seattle. This time around, the league will ensure new potential teams get the best possible players available, regardless of where they come from. That means the Leafs stand to lose good players without getting anything in return.
Scheduling issues and extending the season
The NHL schedule is unbalanced as it is. Currently, the Leafs play four games per year against all division rivals, three games against conference rivals, and two games against Western Conference teams.
So, if two more teams are added to the Eastern Conference, for instance, what does that do to the schedule? How does the league balance that out?
Moreover, if two other teams are added to the Western Conference, how would that affect road trips and scheduling? One rumour suggests that the league has thought about expanding the regular season to 84 or 88 games to accommodate expansion.
Doing so would be ludicrous. Furthermore, the league has thought about shortening the time between games. So, teams would play more back-to-backs or three-in-fours, making it more taxing on the players themselves.
Again, these are rumours and don’t seem to have much traction. But the ideas have been floated. If the league is serious about boosting revenue, why not extend the season by two weeks and add four more games?
That idea would not sit well with players and coaches. Playoff teams could easily play over 100 games in a season, with some players taking a tremendous toll on their bodies.
Ultimately, expansion will happen sooner rather than later. One proposed timeline is that the league will try to look into expansion at some point in the 2030s. But there’s one thing to keep in mind. The Arizona Coyotes have a five-year window to re-enter the NHL. That window would be up in 2029.
So, if the Coyotes do come back, the league would be stuck with 33 teams, meaning the NHL would need to add one more to balance the load somewhat. If that’s indeed the case, there’s a very high probability that one team, the Coyotes, goes to the West and the other club goes to the East.
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That situation alone could make life extremely complicated for the Toronto Maple Leafs. The good news is that this scenario is most likely years away from happening. For now, everyone in Leafs Nation can breathe easy.