3 reasons why Anthony Stolarz could contend for the Vezina Trophy

Toronto Maple Leafs netminder Anthony Stolarz is off to a great start. So much so that he could contend for the Vezina Trophy if he keeps up his current pace.

Winning the Vezina would be a considerable feat as the last time a Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender won the award was way back in 1964-65 when Terry Sawchuk and Johnny Bower shared the honor.

It’s mind-boggling to consider that situation when the Leafs have had top-tier goalies in the past such as Curtis Joseph, Ed Belfour, or prime Felix Potvin.

But could Anthony Stolarz really have a legitimate chance at winning the award? He does have incredible numbers right now, but let's keep in mind, he's only played give games for the Leafs, and has never played over 30 games in any NHL season.

He's also 31, and most goalies need to build a body of work before the writers will give them the big award at the end of the season. However, that hasn't always been the case - there are lots of one-offs who have won it, and the goalie position is incredibly volatile to the point where Stolarz winning the awards wouldn't even be that much of a suprise.

So yes, we are well aware that this is a little silly after just five games (he played last night, but this was written ahead of time). And yes, we know that his numbers will not remain this high and that regression is almost guaranteed.

Nevertheless, here’s a look at three reasons why he might just join other unlikely winners like Jim Carey in 1996 or Jose Theodore in 2002.

3 reasons why Anthony Stolarz could win this year’s Vezina Trophy

The simple math looks promising

Stolarz has played in five games this season, registering a 3-2 mark with a 1.83 GAA and a .938 SV%. The GAA and SV% certainly look promising despite Stolarz’s lackluster record. But when you consider the two losses, they were hardly poor outings.

First, the Leafs lost 1-0 against the Montreal Canadiens in their season opener. Stolarz made 26 saves in the losing effort. The Leafs could have easily won that game had they actually scored.

Then, Stolarz’s second loss came against the New York Rangers. In reality, the Leafs lost 2-1 as the Rangers added two empty-net goals to make the final score 4-1. In that game, Stolarz gave up two goals and made 32 saves. Again, the Leafs could have won that game had they scored.

Beyond that, Stolarz’s three wins have seen him give up exactly two goals in each outing. That’s fantastic when considering the Leafs have not had a stable goalie for quite some. Of course, some would point out the minuscule sample size.

Yes, that’s true, I’m basing my claim on a five-game sample. However, there’s a lot more to consider when considering how Stolarz stacks up against other NHL netminders.

The current GAA leader is the New York Islanders’ Ilya Sorokin. Sorokin has a 1.64 GAA this season. However, Sorokin has only played two games so far. Perhaps other more reasonable comparables would be the Winnipeg Jets’ Connor Hellebuyck with a 1.40 GAA or the Dallas Stars Jake Oettinger with a 1.81 GAA.  Given the small sample size, Stolarz isn’t too far off.

As for SV%, the Detroit Red Wings Alex Lyon currently leads the pack with a .955 SV%. Hellebuyck has a .948 with Oettinger at .941. Once again, we see that Stolar isn’t far off the lead. What’s more, it’s reasonable to assume that Lyon won’t be able to keep up his strong start. So, a drop-off should be expected at some point.

Now, let’s continue building Stolarz’s case by looking at the deeper advanced metrics.

Anthony Stolarz’s advanced metrics further strengthen the Vezina Case

Let’s start with Expected Goals Against (EGA). This metric measures the amount of goals a netminder should allow based on a number of factors such as shots against. The current leader is the Anaheim Ducks’ Lukas Dostal. His EGA is 17.66. In other words, he should have allowed nearly 18 goals this season but has only allowed 11. So, his performance means he’s allowed roughly seven goals less.

Stolarz sits seventh on the list at 14.28 EGA while allowing nine. Stolarz has saved about five goals, slightly below the New York Rangers’ Igor Shesterkin, while trailing Oettinger and Lyon.

As for SV% on unblocked shots, Stolarz is top-10 with a .969%. That total puts Stolarz 0.018% above expected SV%.

Now, let’s look at another interesting metric: xGAA or expected GAA. According to data, Stolarz’s GAA should be around 2.91. However, it’s 1.83. That makes his SV% 1.07, leading to an 0.88 wins above replacement. These numbers don’t necessarily jump off the page, but they are consistent with other top netminders.

For instance, Shesterkin’s xGAA is 3.09 with his actual GAA sitting at 1.98 good for .90 wins above replacement. Andrei Vasilevsky, who’s having a bit of a tough start, has an xGAA of 3.21 and a real GAA of 3.04.

As you can see, the advanced metrics help support Stolarz’s case. While they’re not conclusive, at least not at this point in the season, they support the notion that Stolarz has a legitimate chance at contending for the Vezina if he can keep up this performance.

However, detractors could easily point to the fact that Stolarz has never really been a starting goaltender before. While that may be true, the fact is that like Carey and Theodore, goaltenders can have magical seasons. When those seasons result in winning seasons for their clubs, voters may be compelled to pick a dark horse to win the coveted Vezina Trophy.