Anthony Stolarz’s advanced metrics further strengthen the Vezina Case
Let’s start with Expected Goals Against (EGA). This metric measures the amount of goals a netminder should allow based on a number of factors such as shots against. The current leader is the Anaheim Ducks’ Lukas Dostal. His EGA is 17.66. In other words, he should have allowed nearly 18 goals this season but has only allowed 11. So, his performance means he’s allowed roughly seven goals less.
Stolarz sits seventh on the list at 14.28 EGA while allowing nine. Stolarz has saved about five goals, slightly below the New York Rangers’ Igor Shesterkin, while trailing Oettinger and Lyon.
As for SV% on unblocked shots, Stolarz is top-10 with a .969%. That total puts Stolarz 0.018% above expected SV%.
Now, let’s look at another interesting metric: xGAA or expected GAA. According to data, Stolarz’s GAA should be around 2.91. However, it’s 1.83. That makes his SV% 1.07, leading to an 0.88 wins above replacement. These numbers don’t necessarily jump off the page, but they are consistent with other top netminders.
For instance, Shesterkin’s xGAA is 3.09 with his actual GAA sitting at 1.98 good for .90 wins above replacement. Andrei Vasilevsky, who’s having a bit of a tough start, has an xGAA of 3.21 and a real GAA of 3.04.
As you can see, the advanced metrics help support Stolarz’s case. While they’re not conclusive, at least not at this point in the season, they support the notion that Stolarz has a legitimate chance at contending for the Vezina if he can keep up this performance.
However, detractors could easily point to the fact that Stolarz has never really been a starting goaltender before. While that may be true, the fact is that like Carey and Theodore, goaltenders can have magical seasons. When those seasons result in winning seasons for their clubs, voters may be compelled to pick a dark horse to win the coveted Vezina Trophy.