The Toronto Maple Leafs appear poised to finish atop the Atlantic Division as they head into the 2025 NHL playoffs.
The Toronto Maple Leafs seem to have their best chance to make a strong postseason run this year.
But in order to make a noise in the playoffs, the Leafs will have to get past their biggest hurdle: The first round. In the last eight years, the Leafs have gone out of the playoffs seven times in the first round.
So, here’s a look at three potential first-round scenarios the Toronto Maple Leafs could face in the first round of the 2025 NHL playoffs.
3 potential first-round scenarios Toronto Maple Leafs could face
The Battle of Ontario
If the NHL regular season ended today, the Toronto Maple Leafs would face the Ottawa Senators in the first round of NHL playoffs. The Leafs lead the Atlantic Division by four points over the Tampa Bay Lightning.
While the division lead is hardly set in stone at this point, the Leafs look like the frontrunners to win the Atlantic. As for the Senators, they look set in their spot as the Eastern Conference’s first wild card team. There is also a chance that Tampa could win the division, Florida falls into the wildcard, and the Leafs still face Ottawa, but this time as the 2 and 3 seeds.
If either scenario takes place, the Leafs would face the Sens in the Battle of Ontario. I can understand how some fans are concerned about this scenario as the Senators swept the season series against the Leafs this year.
However, I will say this: The regular season is one thing and the playoffs are a completely different animal. Of course, the Leafs will face a tough challenge. But if I had to bet, I’d say the Toronto Maple Leafs advance in a six-game slogfest.
Leafs-Panthers
One of the things I’ve been chirping about all season is how the Leafs need to win the Atlantic Division to avoid facing the Florida Panthers or Lightning in the first round. However, the situation seems increasingly likely that the Senators will pass the Panthers for third place in the Atlantic.
Like Ottawa, there are two ways the Leafs could end up playing Florida: As the 2 and 3 seeds, or as the division winner vs the Wild Card.
The Panthers are in the midst of a five-game losing streak and look nothing like the infallible champions from a year ago. As such, the Panthers falling to the first wild card spot sets up a Leafs-Panthers first-round matchup.
Judging from the last time the Leafs and Panthers met, the Leafs could bounce the Panthers in five games. This cou
Leafs-Lightning
The Leafs are highly unlikely to play the Lightning at this point because it does not seem likely that Tampa would fall to the Wild Card, and it looks like one of Toronto or Tampa will win the division.
Technically, the Panthers are still alive in the quest for the division title, so a Leafs vs Tampa series is a possibility, but it's a longshot at this point. And there is also a small chance that Ottawa passes Tampa but not Florida, though again, it is very unlikely.
On a final note, regardless of who they play, I will say that the Leafs must strive to close out the first round in as few games as possible. There’s an incentive to get past the first round quickly and gain an extra couple of days of rest in between rounds. Those extra days go a long way to keeping players, especially goaltenders, fresh during the postseason.