At the No. 5 slot for the Toronto Maple Leafs prospect rankings we have one of the brightest prosects on the back end, Noah Chadwick.
Drafted by the Toronto Maple Leafs in the Sixth round, 185th overall at the 2023 NHL Draft, the original prognosis was not very exciting. The left-shot defenceman boasted good size at 6’4 207lbs but did not produce well (five goals, 15 assists for 20 points in 67 games) and he struggled with his skating.
At the time, he seemed like yet another swing on a low ceiling player but he surprised everybody by showing incredible growth. He more than doubled his production in 66 games, scoring 12 goals, 44 assists for 56 points.
This made his projection look much more optimistic, separating himself from the pack at that stage of the draft. The Leafs rewarded him with an entry-level contract part way through this season.
Over the past two seasons he wore both the alternate captain’s ‘A’ and then the captain’s ‘C’ for the Lethbridge Hurricanes of the Western Hockey League (WHL) this past year.
What they did last season
His uptick in production and development saw him receive an invitation to join Team Canada’s World Juniors Summer Showcase in July 2024. This put him in direct consideration for Canada’s World Juniors squad and would have put him with fellow Leafs prospect, Easton Cowan.
Unfortunately, Chadwick did not make the team but his invitation in and of itself showed how far he had come from being a sixth rounder just over a year before. Although he showed a lot of growth his production mostly stagnated from the previous season, scoring 53 points (13 goals and 40 assists) in 66 games with the Hurricanes in the regular season.
His production really took off in the playoffs, scoring 14 points (seven goals and seven assists) in 16 games en route to a Conference Finals berth that they were swept in by the WHL champions, the Medicine Hat Tigers.
What we expect this season
Now, at 20 years old he is set to graduate to the professional ranks, possibly playing with the Maple Leafs American Hockey League (AHL) affiliate, the Toronto Marlies. There, he will be battling to maintain a spot in the lineup with multiple more seasoned players who are older but there should be a spot if he proves worthy.
Given his spot is not guaranteed in the AHL, it is very possible the team sends him to their ECHL affiliate; the Cincinnati Cyclones given his age and where he is in his development cycle. Last season, the club sent multiple prospects on NHL deals like; Ty Voit, Braeden Kressler, and Vyacheslav Peksa to play significant minutes with the Cyclones.
Either place he ends up, this year will be huge for his development and a good measuring stick for just how far he can rise.
How does Chadwick fit the Leafs' plans?
Chadwick was drafted by the current regime and thus fits their preferred size on the blueline. This gives him a good leg up moving forward. At this rate, he faces a bit of an uphill battle in cracking the NHL lineup with six of the club’s defenders being locked up until July 1st, 2027.
Trades can happen and likely there will be some movement but this is a good thing. It makes the barrier for entry high, meaning Chadwick has his work cut out for him in order to make the Leafs lineup and sets a high standard throughout the organization.
It also means there is no fear that he may be rushed to fill their sixth spot on the blueline, when he may not be ready. The Leafs will and should practice patience with their sixth rounder and will allow him the proper time to develop and season in the AHL.
What is Chadwick's NHL ceiling?
Speaking of him making the NHL, Chadwick’s projection at the next level is a little hard to nail. If he can translate the offensive production and further improve his mobility, there is a world he could be a legitimate second-pairing defenceman. However, it’s most likely that Chadwick is most efficient as a third-pairing defender with the ability to move up with some injuries ahead of him.
To me, this gives him a range of a fourth to sixth defenceman at the NHL level playing a more defensively responsible, two-way game likely logging some minutes on the penalty kill if any special teams units.