Ranked at No. 9 on the Editor in Leaf Top 10 Leafs prospects in Finish defenceman Topi Niemelä. Niemelä, 23, was a third-round pick by the Maple Leafs in 2020 and quickly became one of the organizations most promising prospects with a strong season as a teenager in the SM-Liiga in Finland with Karpat.
Niemela became a top-ranking name in the Leafs system at the 2021 World Juniors when he was named top defenceman at the tournament with eight points in seven games as Finland went on to win the bronze medal. He followed up his strong play at the World Juniors the following season as Finland earned a silver medal.
At the end of the 2022-23 season, Niemelä joined the Toronto Marlies where he played the following two seasons.
Niemelä possess a lot of strong elements to his game. Between the AHL, World Juniors, and SM-liiga he has been a strong offensive contributor with a career high of 39 points in 68 AHL games in his first full season of North American professional hockey in 2023-24.
He's a playmaker on the blue line and despite a dip in production last season he's shown that he has the ability to set up his teammates throughout his young career. He's shown to be reliable at both ends of the ice but there is room for improvement in the defensive zone. His size is his biggest concern as he is listed at 6'0" and 179 lbs. In his first full season in the AHL he was a key contributor but his role diminished for the Marlies last season as his production took a step back and Niemelä has signed with the Malmo Redhawks of the Swedish Hockey League as he'll look to get his career back on track.
What they did last season
Last season was a disappointing season for Niemelä. Following a strong 2023-24 campaign where he had 39 points in 68 games for the Marlies and looked like a potential call-up to the Leafs he took a step back scoring just 22 points in 61 games and his plus-3 dropped to a minus-11.
His ice time took a dip last season, oftentimes finding himself on the outside looking in of the top-four. The emergence of fellow 2020 Leafs draft pick William Villeneuve saw Niemelä's role with the Marlies diminish and it appears that Niemelä's chances of being apart of the Leafs long term plans have gone down after a step back in 2024-25.
What to expect this season
Niemelä returns to Europe this season after signing in the SHL with Malmo. The Leafs extended a qualifying offer to Niemela in June and will retain his NHL rights. Niemelä is the third-youngest defender on Malmo and will look to get his career back on track.
The 23-year-old will need to prove that last season's dip in production was an outlier if he hopes to play his way back to North America. Niemelä will look to gain more ice time and produce offensively while improving at both ends of the ice. The expectation should be that the offence returns to his previous form and that he can take the necessary steps to improve his defensive play and use his skills to his advantage. Undersized defencemen aren't unusual in the NHL but it'll be up to Niemela to use what he has to his advantage in a make or break 2025-26 season.
How does Niemelä fit the Leafs' plans?
The mold of the Leafs defence is extremely different in 2025 under Brad Treliving than it was in 2020 when then general manager Kyle Dubas drafted Niemelä 64th overall. Treliving values size a lot more and the signings of prospects Cade Webber (6-foot-7), John Prokop (6-foot-3) and Blake Smith (6-foot-4) signal the direction that the organization has gone to on the backend. Every defender listed on the Leafs roster is 6-foot-1 or above except for Dakota Mermis who is listed at 6-foot, the same height as Niemelä although Mermis has proven that he can play NHL games in a depth role when called upon.
As a result of the direction Brad Treliving has brought the Leafs defence in, Niemela is an outlier from the mold. His return to Europe could push him down the organizations depth chart even further however it doesn't mean it's the last we could see of Niemelä. Leo Komarov, Valeri Nichuskin and Mark Girodano are all examples of players who went to play in Europe before returning to the NHL and going on to have very good careers. The return to Europe doesn't mean it's the end of the line for Niemelä but he has a lot to prove if he wants to be a part of the Leafs plans.
What is Niemelä's ceiling in the NHL?
Niemelä has an uphill battle to make it to the NHL but if he can make it to the show it could be rewarding for the Leafs or whichever team takes a chance on him. Niemelä's ceiling would be in a depth role in the NHL if he can reach his potential. He possess the tools to be a strong contributor in a depth role in the NHL who can produce offensively and use his puck moving ability and find success in the defensive zone despite the concerns with his size, Carolina Hurricanes defender Sean Walker is an example of what Niemelä could be if he reaches his full potential, a defender who has found NHL success in depth roles despite a lack of size.
Niemelä will look to rebound in 2025-26 and get back to finding his previous success. It's going to be a season where he either plays his way back into favour with the organization or he becomes a prospect who is out of sight and out of mind while playing over in Europe.