2. Regulation Wins
Only Montreal has less, with four. The Leafs have five. They are tied for second last in the NHL with San Jose, Seattle and a bunch of other bad teams.
Winning in regulation isn’t a guarantee of future success, but it definitely is an indication of how well you’re playing. The Leafs have six wins in OT or Shootout, but once you get beyond regulation, you might as well flip a coin.
The Leafs are 11th overall in total points, but could easily be 25th if they had gotten relatively unlucky in overtime.
3. Expected Goals
The Toronto Maple Leafs are 20th in Expected Goals Percentage, which is the best statistic we have for forecasting the immediate future.
The Leafs are 11th overall, but 20th in Expected Goals, so they are expected to move closer to 20th overall as time goes on.
With their blue-line sapping the skill of Matthews/Marner, and their goalies playing sub-par, it’s not likely they can keep out performing their play.
The Leafs are also under 50% in puck-possession, shots, goals, scoring chances and dangerous scoring chances at 5v5. That is not a recipe for long-term success.