Nylander’s Contract Year Shouldn’t Scare the Toronto Maple Leafs

The Toronto Maple Leafs shouldn’t be scared away that William Nylander is having his career year during a contract year.

William Nylander is costing the Toronto Maple Leafs thousands of dollars every single day by the way he’s performing this year. With a 17-game point streak, Nylander has catapulted himself into the Hart Trophy conversation and is clearly one of the top players in the game.

When you look back at Nylander’s career, it wasn’t all roses.

First, there was an argument about even drafting him No. 8 overall in the 2014 NHL Entry Draft. At the time, there was a ton of debate between him and Nikolaj Ehlers, who the Winnipeg Jets drafted next, but the Leafs clearly made the right choice.

Ehlers and Nylander’s stats were very similar for the first half of their career, but Nylander has gone up an extra level over the past three seasons.

Prior to being the point-per-game player we currently see, the fanbase revolted during his last contract dispute. Nylander sat out the first two months of the season, but finally signed his deal on December 1, 2018 at a price-tag that seemed a little rich at the time.

After signing that six-year deal worth $6.9M AAV, Nylander had a terrible season, sparking trade debate throughout sports media outlets.

• “How could they give this one-dimensional player so much money and he can’t even score 10 goals in a season?
• “What in the world was Kyle Dubas and company thinking?”

Fast-forward five years later and Nylander is the most beloved player on the team and Dubas looks like a genius. His care-free personality, mixed with this insane offensively skill to score in multiple ways has fans jumping off their couch every single game and he now holds one of the best contracts in the NHL.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Nylander’s Breakout Year Isn’t Flash in the Pan

It’s crazy how much the narrative changes each year, but the big thing surrounding Nylander this season has been his contract-year performance. In professional sports, the contract-year is a big deal, as it feels like you see a lot of players outperform their typical seasons and cash-in as a result.

Then after they cash-in, it feels like they fall back to earth and it looks like the player fleeced the organization. There are plenty of examples like this, with Jonathan Huberdeau being the most recent one, however I wouldn’t classify Nylander in this conversation, and here’s why.

Nylander is having an incredible season this year, but it’s not like it came out of nowhere.

Here’s his last few years (stats: via hockeydb.com):

• 2020-21 season:
  • 17 goals, 42 points (41 games)
• 2021-22 season:
  • 34 goals, 80 points (81 games)
• 2022-23 season:
  • 40 goals, 87 points (82 games)
• 2023-24 season:
  • 12 goals, 27 points (17 games)

Over the past four seasons, he’s been trending in this direction and at 27-years-old, he’s finally hitting his peak, but players like Nylander tend to perform well into their thirties.  Nylander is right in the middle of his prime and will be good for years to come.

He’s currently on pace for 70 goals and 130 points, which isn’t going to happen, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see a 50 goal/100 point season based on how his numbers have elevated year after year.

Nylander’s performance this year shouldn’t scare the Leafs, but instead should excite them.

The organization currently has three players over $10M, which is a scary thought, but they should make it four based on how Nylander is playing this season. He’s clearly just hitting his stride and the last thing we should expect to see is regression from him, as he’s just hitting his peak.