Toronto Maple Leafs Tyler Bertuzzi Playing Better Than You Think

The Toronto Maple Leafs are not doing well, mostly because the players they signed in the off-season are destroying their elite player’s other-worldly performances.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are getting stellar, better-than-ever seasons from Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares and William Nylander.

But the horrible play by John Klingberg, Max Dom, Ryan Reaves, David Kampf as well as  Ilya Samsonov, Mark Giordano and Jake McCabe, have been costing the Leafs games.

There is one new addition, however, who is taking heat he doesn’t deserve.

Tyler Bertuzzi was signed to a one-year deal, which was very smart, and so far, the results have been putrid – he has just 3 goals and 1 assist in 14 games.

However, things are not as bad as they seem.

Toronto Maple Leafs Tyler Bertuzzi Player Better Than You Think

Most NHL coverage lacks nuance, and the way in which Tyler Bertuzzi has been lumped in with Domi, Kampf, Klingberg and Reaves is a perfect example.

It’s not like he’s playing the best that he can, but he certainly hasn’t been total crap either.

His results should be a lot better than they are, but he’s been very unlucky.

I agree there are few games where he has appeared to be the earth-shattering power-forward he was hyped as, but he has also been more effective than he’s been credited for.

Bertuzzi has a 54% puck-possession rating.

The Leafs have a +21 shot advantage when he’s played (we’re talking 5v5 only) good for 56%.

The Leafs also get 56% of the scoring chances, and 56% of the high-danger chances when he’s on the ice. These numbers border on elite.

All of this works to a 56% Expected Goals Rating, which is better than excellent.  It turns out it’s he best mark on the team.

Now, Expected Goals aren’t the be-all end-all.  Real production is eventually needed or it doesn’t matter. However, when the sample size is low, I would take a player with bad results but a great XG rating and a low shooting percentage over a player who is producing but has a low Xgoals rating.

This is because the first player is all but assured to be better in the future.

Right now Bertuzzi has a 4.35 individual shooting-percentage and a 5.88 on-ice shooting-percentage (i.e the shooting percentage of everyone he plays with at 5v5). (all stats naturalstattrick.com).

Thos are extremely unlucky numbers, and we know, for a fact, beyond any dispute, that NHL players have no control over their shooting percentages, and that they do not reflect any correlation between good and bad play.

In addition, Bertuzzi has a PDO of 97, and anything that far below 100 is extremely unlucky.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have a lot of problems, but actually, Tyler Bertuzzi isn’t one of them. He’s playing perfectly fine, maybe even excellently.  The goals will follow.

Klingberg, Reaves and Domi aren’t getting any better.  Bertuzzi will.