One Factor Has Been Driving the Toronto Maple Leafs Losing Streak

After losing four games in a row (and maybe even five, depending on how last night’s game went) the Toronto Maple Leafs fans are calling for blood.  Sheldon Keefe must go!  Fire Brad Treliving!  Trade everyone not named Auston Matthews!

Admittedly, the Toronto Maple Leafs do not look very good right now.  They sit with a 5-4-2 record, and rank 23rd in the NHL in Expected Goals Percentage at 5v5.  They have minus 1 goal differential, and currently reside outside of a playoff spot.

This is not what was expected of a  Leafs group that had a very strong regular season last year and finally broke through and won a round in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

What’s going on?  Why is this happening?  There are some easy pickings when the questions is “what’s wrong with the Leafs”.

The absolute lack of response to super-villain Brad Marchand’s can opener that knocked Toronto defenseman Timothy Liljegren out of the lineup for at least 10 games jumps to mind first.  Secondary scoring has been a problem, but really, the entire bottom-half of the lineup has been terrible in all facets of the game.

A poor start to the season for goaltender Ilya Samsonov hasn’t helped.

Very little contribution from general manager Brad Treliving’s offseason “grit and sandpaper” signings Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi and Ryan Reaves has generated much consternation from Leafs Nation. 

Part of the slow start from these players could be the result of coach Sheldon Keefe’s failure to properly integrate them into the lineup, but these are also players whose current play was very predictable on the day they were signed.

These negatives have been partially offset by the fact that Auston Matthews leads the league in goals, William Nylander and Mitch Marner are both in the top 20 in points, and John Tavares keeps grinding along at a point-per-game pace.

The Key to the Toronto Maple Leafs Struggles

There is one factor, however, that is dragging the Toronto Maple Leafs down like a millstone: their defense.  All of the other negatives previously mentioned would be bearable, and perhaps even overlooked, if the defense was not so overwhelmingly bad.

Morgan Rielly has been the only bright light on the Leafs blue line this year, and he is one of only two D with a positive expected-goals-for percentage (xGF%) at 50.5% (per naturalstattrick.com).  Timothy Liljegren (before he got hurt) comes in at 55.8%, although he has coughed up some pretty ugly turnovers.

T.J. Brodie has been hot and cold so far, coming in at 48.5%  Then the numbers quickly go way south.  Jake McCabe (pre-injury) 43.7%, Mark Giordano 43.3%, John Klingberg 41.6%, and William Lagesson 36.4%.

The problem starts with the fact that in reality, the Toronto Maple Leafs started the year with one top pairing player (Rielly), two debatable second pairing players (Liljegren and Brodie), and a bunch of guys who are third pairing players (at best).

Add in the injuries to Liljegren and McCabe, and now they’ve been forced into using their 8th and 9th guys up, and everyone with any skill is playing more minutes than they should be.  The whole blue line corps was exhausted by the end of the Buffalo game.  Morgan Rielly has played almost 27 minutes per game the last 5 games. (Though No one made Sheldon Keefe staple Max Lajoie to the bench for 55 minutes.

With everyone in over their head, this puts more pressure on goalies Joseph Woll and Ilya Samsonov.  Unable to quickly move the puck up ice, the Leafs spend more time in the defensive zone, putting additional strain on the already overworked D.  This also results in fewer offensive opportunities for Toronto’s forwards, preventing the team from taking advantage of what should be its biggest strength.

Acquiring a couple of top-4 defensemen would go a very long way towards fixing what ails the Toronto Maple Leafs.  Until GM Brad Treliving finds a way to make those additions to the roster, expect the pain to continue.