3 Toronto Maple Leafs That Will Regress in 2023-24

Every season, the Toronto Maple Leafs try their best to field the most competitive team they could have on their roster to give them a reasonable shot at making the playoffs, along with potentially winning the Stanley Cup that has eluded them for so many years.

But in order for the Toronto Maple Leafs to be successful, the key part is being able to have players during their prime and dominant years so that they could be playing most effectively in helping the club to their success as much as possible.

There’s no doubt that their current “core four” consisting of superstars Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander have all been going strong and doesn’t appear to be slowing down any time soon, especially with the way they have jumped out of the gate this year.

Even John Tavares has miraculously been holding off the effects of time, and seems equal today to the player he was when he was with the Islanders.  

For the rest of the group, there are some players that seem to be getting better by the day, such as Matthew Knies and his recent two-goal game in helping the Leafs come back to beat their arch rivals Tampa Bay Lightning.

However, at the same time, there may be some players that may seemingly be headed in the wrong direction and could perhaps see a decline in their play for the 2023-24 season.

This should come as no surprise on a team whose blue-line has five 30 year-olds, and even has the oldest player in the NHL.

Here, we take a look at three potential Toronto Maple Leafs players that could be in for a rough ride this year if their current playing circumstances do not change in the near future.

Mark Giordano

Mark Giordano was the Toronto Maple Leafs key acquisition at the trade deadline two years ago that added some veteran leadership to their defensive corps as part of their playoff run for the past couple of seasons.

Not only did he provide solid defence, but as a former Norris Trophy winner in 2018-19 in which he amassed a career-high 74 points, he could occasionally give the team the offensive spark if needed.

After all, he has averaged close to 30 points a season in the past four years despite getting up there in age.

However, after a heavy workload midway through last season due to injuries hitting the Leafs blueline, Giordano began to show his age more near the end of the regular season.

In particular during the playoffs, he definitely appeared slower and less effective than his usual self.

So far this year after five games, Giordano has witnessed a significant decrease in his playing time, averaging just around 16 minutes a game, compared to close to 19 minutes a game last season.

In addition, he has registered only one assist, along with a GF% of 33.33 and a SCF% of 47.19 in all situations (both career lows) so far this season.

Having just turned 40 over a couple weeks ago, Giordano will probably not be getting any faster and will most likely see a steady decline in play as the season goes on in 2023-24.

He won’t be falling off a cliff just yet, but one shouldn’t expect the dominant Giordano that we all admired during his glory days with the Calgary Flames at this point of stage in his career.

So if his ineffectiveness becomes more evident as the season goes on, don’t be surprised that by the trade deadline, the Toronto Maple Leafs could be looking at an upgrade in the position in preparation for the playoffs.

David Kampf

David Kampf had been the perfect third or fourth-line center and penalty kill specialist for the past two seasons with the Leafs.

In addition to his superb face-off skills and play while a man short, Kampf has managed to put up surprising offensive numbers at the same time. His two most productive seasons in the NHL actually came in the past two seasons with the Leafs, including a career-high in goals with 11 in 2021-22, and in points with 27 in 2022-23.

(All stats from hockeydb.com and naturalstattrick.com)

But what one should take note of is the fact that he was able to accomplish it with the likes of Ondrej Kase, Pierre Engvall, and Alexander Kerfoot as his main linemates during that time, as all three definitely possess the offensive potential that could complement Kampf’s style of play well.

However, for the 2023-24 season, it appears as though his role will be mainly as a fourth-line center, with grinders Noah Gregor and Ryan Reaves flanking him.

If the Leafs intend to use this setup for the majority of the season, which has been pretty much set in their original plans, one could expect a huge decline in production by Kampf for the 2023-24 season, as the offensive potential on his line would definitely be at a huge drop-off compared to what he had before.

But if the Leafs intend to experiment and elevate Kampf to be with more solid offensive players from time to time, like he was last game playing with Knies and Max Domi, the decrease in production probably won’t be as steep.

Nevertheless, just don’t expect Kampf to display his offensive prowess like he did the past couple of seasons, as he will most likely regress more towards his career average of around 15-16 points for his output this year.