Toronto Maple Leafs Season Preview: Locks and Long Shots

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The Toronto Maple Leafs will embark on a new season Wednesday against their long-time, original six rival the Montreal Canadiens.

With the dawning of a new year, hope springs eternal for a tortured fan base that has endured a 56-year championship drought. That happens to be the longest active streak in the NHL (as if fans of the Toronto Maple Leafs need another reminder).

There were a lot of offseason changes, both on and off the ice. Former general manager Kyle Dubas has a new home in Pittsburgh with the Penguins. Brad Treliving was hired to replace him.

Treliving was tasked with reshaping the roster around the returning core of key players Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares, and Morgan Rielly.

Toronto Maple Leafs Season Preview

Many unrestricted free agents departed. Gone are Ryan O’Reilly, Noel Acciari, Justin Holl, Alex Kerfoot, Luke Schenn, and Michael Bunting. Sam Lafferty was traded to help the Leafs comply with the NHL salary cap.

Treliving chose to sign Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, and John Klingberg to replace them. He signed head coach Sheldon Keefe to an extension and, more importantly, inked superstar Matthews to a new 4-year deal that will keep him in Toronto for five more seasons.

The upper-echelon talent of the Leafs key players ensures they should be contenders for years to come. Still, the previous years of playoff failure saw the championship window shrink a little more and urgency increase.

The Leafs enter the season as a top contender for the Stanley Cup, but they do have flaws, most notably on defense. Many look at their back end and see the need for an upgrade to be considered a serious threat for a title.

As the opener for another hopeful season approaches, let’s pier into our crystal ball and predict what we foresee happening.

Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports /

Toronto Maple Leafs Season Preview: The “Locks”

An Atlantic Division regular season title is a realistic goal for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

The Leafs have surpassed 100 points the last four times the NHL has played a full 82-game schedule.

Their roster is loaded at forward. Ilya Samsonov and Joseph Woll give them a strong goaltending tandem. The maligned, aging defense is questionable but should be middle-of-the-pack, at worst.

The absence of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci should see the Boston Bruins take a step back. The aging Tampa Bay Lightning will miss Andrei Vasilevskiy while he recovers from injury.

The Buffalo Sabres and Ottawa Senators should continue their ascent up the NHL standings, but they are a year or two away from serious contention.

Add it all up and the Toronto Maple Leafs have a golden opportunity to win the Atlantic and secure a home-ice advantage for a first-round wild-card opponent.

They will once again reach the 100-point milestone and be in the hunt for the top spot in the division. Anything less than a top-two finish in the Atlantic would be a disappointing season.

Toronto Maple Leafs Season Preview: Auston Matthews

Individually, the Leafs core will once again deliver some eye-popping numbers during the regular season.

You can bet Matthews will be motivated to improve on his “subpar” season of 40 goals from last season. The two-time Rocket Richard trophy winner will be eager to reclaim the goal-scoring crown.

If Keefe continues to dangle the carrot of extra time-on-ice killing penalties, Matthews will want to justify his coach’s faith and perform.

Matthews, with the expected nagging wrist/hand injury from last year behind him, and a return to a career average shooting percentage, is a lock for a 50-goal season.

I see Matthews netting between 55 and 65 goals this season. With Matthews once again filling the net at his usual pace, his co-face of the franchise also seems poised for a special year.

(Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images) /

Mitch Marner

It is hard to believe that Marner has yet to reach 100 points scored in a single season. The active Leafs points leader came agonizingly close last year, scoring 99 points in 80 games played.

An organizational decision to sit him out for a game during the home stretch of the regular season likely prevented him from hitting the milestone.

He has bypassed the 90-point mark three times during his career. The Leafs offensive strengths and depth up front make it a foregone conclusion that Marner finally lands on the century mark.

The expected third member of the Toronto Maple Leafs first line, Bertuzzi should blossom next to the team’s two superstars. He has never played with such talent around him.

He has size and has scored 30 goals before during his career on a less talented Detroit Red Wings squad. As long as the proper chemistry develops, Bertuzzi should score 30 once again.

The next safest sure thing for the Leafs upcoming season is Matthew Knies. From his debut moment last season, he has looked the part of an NHL player.

It looks like the Leafs got a steal when they drafted him in the second round based on his skating, playmaking, and maturity beyond his years.

While there will likely be dips in his play throughout the year as he adjusts to the rigors of a full NHL schedule, it is not hard to imagine him being a significant contributor.

A twenty-goal, fifty-point season won’t be a problem. He should also garner consideration for the Calder Trophy as top rookie.

Leafs Season Preview: The Long Shots

Inevitably, there will be intriguing stories throughout the Leafs season, perhaps less likely to happen, but not impossible.

One of the more interesting subplots to the Leafs season is their goaltending. Returning starter Samsonov, signed a 1-year deal with the team after an arbitrator’s ruling.

He will once again be trying to prove that he is a capable starting NHL goaltender for a contending team. A strong season could place him out of the Leafs price range when he hits free agency next summer.

Woll looked calm and collected in every circumstance he was thrown into last year, many of them high-pressure situations.

Samsonov has also suffered through some injury concerns.

The number one obstacle keeping Woll from achieving the starting goaltending job of the Toronto Maple Leafs is the past.

The Leafs do not have a great history of drafting and developing their starting goaltenders. James Reimer and Felix “The Cat” Potvin are the only two over the last thirty years.

The stars are aligning for Woll to join that list. By season’s end, he will.

The Leafs defense is their biggest weakness. Lots of question marks surround this group. The play of T.J. Brodie and Mark Giordano regressed last year and it is not a sure thing that they rebound.

Morgan Rielly must carry over his play from last year’s playoffs into the regular season. He is their most reliable defender. You know what he brings and he is still in his prime years.

New addition Klingberg is a shot-in-the-dark experiment with no assurances on how it will turn out.

The Jake McCabe, pre-Panthers series, would be a boon for the Leafs.

The often-overlooked Timothy Liljegren figures to play an important role for the Leafs this season. The former first-round pick will be needed.

The Leafs back end is likely to suffer injuries and sporadic play due to their age. Liljegren will be forced to play within the top 4 at different points throughout the year.

The long shot prediction? The offensive potential of Liljegren will see him lead the Leafs defense in goals this season.

Toronto Maple Leafs Season Preview: Overall Outlook

As constituted it is hard to envision the Toronto Maple Leafs winning a championship with their current group of defensemen.

A trade deadline deal of draft picks plus a prospect or two (Nick Robertson now seems the most likely candidate) is the likely solution to upgrading the defense.

It will be up to Treliving to supplement the roster as the end of the season nears.

In the meantime, expect the Toronto Maple Leafs to be an offensive juggernaut. They are a likely candidate to lead the NHL in goals scored, likely challenged by the Edmonton Oilers and Colorado Avalanche.

If their defense can be ranked among the top half of the league, it should be good enough for them to win their division.

There is also a very realistic chance that the Leafs have seven twenty-goal scorers, quite an achievement in today’s NHL. Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares, Bertuzzi, Knies, and Domi should reach that mark.

In the end, I see the Leafs winning the Atlantic. Their past playoff experiences, improving playoff pedigree, and home-ice advantage for a minimum of two rounds will take them to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Next. Toronto Maple Leafs Top 10 Prospects October 2023. dark

Unless their defense gets improved, it’s as far as they will get.

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