Toronto Maple Leafs Top 10 Prospects for the 2023-24 NHL Season

Welcome to our annual countdown of the Toronto Maple Leafs Top 10 Prospects.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are set to start the new NHL season by opening training camp this week, and will once again be a top contender for the Stanley Cup, even if their blue-line is the worst out of any other contenders. 

Whether or not they actually win it this year or not will largely depend on some of the players we are going to see on this list.

The Leafs may have changed their general manager, but Kyle Dubas is the one who drafted most of the players we are about to discuss.  Under his leadership, the Leafs focused on finding intelligent players who have high ceilings, the hope being that although they might not get as many NHL players as teams who play it safe with their picks, that the Leafs might find a diamond in the rough.

So far, that has not worked out.

Only time will tell if this strategy proves fruitful, but for now I think most people would agree that the Leafs farm system is mediocre overall, but that it’s a lot better than it could be considering how badly the team drafted while they were selecting their superstars.

Of course, no current analysis of the Leafs Top prospects can be had without discussing Rodion Amirov, the prospect who recently lost his battle with cancer.

Last year we ranked Amirov as the Leafs 4th best prospect, and what happened obviously transcends hockey, but he was a great prospect and the Leafs are much worse off without him.  When something like this happens, you don’t want to seem disrespectful by discussing how it impacts something as unimportant as a hockey team, but if we are going to fairly analyze the Leafs prospect pool, it must be acknowledged that it is now much weaker than it was last year.

Speaking of Amirov, we send our condolences to his friends and family and hope that he can live on as an inspiration to hockey fans everywhere.

In addition to being weaker overall, the Leafs did not graduate anyone off of last year’s list to the NHL full time yet, and they have only added one first rounder in the last three years (and it was the 28th overall pick).

Since this could be the one thing holding the Leafs back from winning a Stanley Cup, I think it’s important to discuss it before moving on to the Top Prospect Countdown.

The Importance of Hitting on An Unexpected Star

Before getting to the countdown, please indulge me on this because I think it’s one of the most under-discusses aspects of the Leafs and their quest to win a Stanley Cup in the Auston Matthews Era, and I can’t think of a better place to discuss it than a top-ten prospect countdown.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have not developed a significant prospect, that they drafted outside of the top 10, into a star player since Tomas Kaberle debuted in 1998.

This is something that almost every single recent Stanley Cup

As we approach the 25th anniversary of Tomas Kaberle’s NHL Debut it’s important to remember that almost every losing season that the Toronto Maple Leafs have had in the last 25 years can at least be partially attributed to them being completely unable to develop a star player that wasn’t gifted to them at the top of the draft.

In 1998 Tomas Kaberle was 20 years old, and had just been drafted in the eighth round of the 1996 NHL Entry Draft.  He played 30 minutes in his NHL debut, the season opener against the Red Wings. (Stats and information for this article from hockey-reference.com)

For contexts sake, that would be something like 2021 5th rounder Ty Voit playing 20 minutes on the top line in this year’s first game.

Tomas Kaberle is an outlier for sure – players picked after the top of the first round, let alone the seventh,  just do not routinely become stars.  Be that as it may, you cannot win if you can’t surround your expensive stars with stars you weren’t supposed to get.

For example, here is every team that made 2008 and 2018, and the star player(s) they weren’t supposed to have.

• Detroit Red Wings  Henrik Zetterberg, 7th round, and Pavel Datsyuk, 6th round.
• Pittsburgh Penguins Kris Letang, 3rd round.
• Chicago Blackhawks Duncan Keith, 2nd round.
• Philadelphia Flyers Jeff Carter, Claude Giroux and Mike Richards who were all 1st Rounders but who were all picked after the top 10.
• Vancouver Canucks  Alex Burrows (never drafted), and Alex Edler, 3rd round pick.
• Boston Bruins Patrice Bergeron, 2nd round, and Brad Marchand, 3rd round. Also Milan Lucic, 2nd rounder and David Krejci 3rd round..
• New Jersey Devils Patrick Elias, 2nd round.
• Los Angeles Kings Jonathan Quick, 3rd round.
• New York Rangers Marc Zuccerelo (undrafted).
• Tampa Bay Lightning Tyler Johnson (undrafted). Nikita Kucherov 2nd round.  Later they would also have Brayden Point, 3rd round.
• San Jose Sharks Joe Pavelski, 7th round.
• Nashville Predators Roman Josi, 2nd round.
• Washington Capitals Brayden Holtby, 4th round.

The list goes on after as well:  Jamie Benn, Vladimir Tarasenko, Brendan Gallagher, William Karlsson and Rielly Smith (not technically drafted by Vegas, but they are an expansion team) and Carter Verhaeghe.

With the possible exceptions of the 2021-22 Colorado Avalanche and the Las Vegas Golden Knights, every single team in the NHL that has made the Stanley Cup Finals since the 2008 season has had a star player on their roster that they drafted outside the top 10 (and in most cases the second round or later).

The Toronto Maple Leafs haven’t made the Stanley Cup Finals during this time, and it is probably not a coincidence that they also haven’t had a star player that they drafted, other than Tomas Kaberle, become a star.

Obviously top picks Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and Morgan Rielly do not count, because the entire point I’m trying to make here is that you need to augment those players with stars you weren’t supposed to get.

The Leafs have wasted an incredible amount of draft picks since they drafted Auston Matthews, but their current system is pretty good considering that they haven’t picked higher than 15th since they took Auston Matthews 1st overall in 2016.

How good is, at this point, anyone’s guess.  If any of these players become stars, then it’s going to be the first time that’s happened in a quarter-century.   Kyle Dubas’ legacy rests in large part on what happens with the following ten players.

If any of them is a star, then the Toronto Maple Leafs will be much closer to finally winning that elusive championship.

Toronto Maple Leafs Top Prospects, Honorable Mentions:

The Toronto Maple Leafs have had a kind of perfect storm in terms of improving the quality of their top-ten prospects list.

1. They didn’t graduate any prospects into full-time bona fide NHL starters last year.
2. They had several prospects rise in the standings significantly after strong years.
3. They picked in the first round.

It would have been better to get a blue-chip prospect, but Joseph Woll and Matthews Knies had such good years that the Leafs Prospect group is now seen much more favorably than it was last year.

Here are some of the players who won’t be making this list who are still decent enough prospects in their own right.

 Nick Abruzzese

Now 24, Abruzzesse was picked in the 4th round of the 2019 NHL Entry Draft. He’s looked fine as a 4th liner in 11 NHL games, but is a bit on the small side to be a grinder.  I would rank him below Steeves but he’s still got a shot to be an NHL regular one day.

Alex Steeves

Steeves turns 24 this year, and he has played six NHL games over parts of two different seasons to date.  He will be one of the Toronto Maple Leafs first call-ups this year, and he’s already good enough to be a 4th liner in the NHL, and while he does have upside it’s hard to know how much.  He’s a 20 goal AHL scorer and maybe there’s a chance he becomes a Hyman/Bunting type guy, but not enough of one to rank him any higher.

Pontus Holmberg

Yeah, he played a 4th line role and was decent, but it’s not like he was crushing his minutes or anything.  He is 24 and he scores at about the same rate as Steeves and Abruzzese.  I think these three could form a better 4th line than the Reaves-Kampf-Gregor one we’re likely to see to start this season, so it’s not like they aren’t good prospects – they just lack a higher upside than everyone ahead of them on this list.

Other Honourable Mentions:

Forward: Semyon Der Arguchintsov, Bobby McMann, Joe Miller, Dmitri Ovchinnikov, Ryan Tverberg, Hudson Malinoski, Nikita Grebenkin, Brandon Lisowsku, Max Ellis

Defense: William Villeneuve, Michael Koster, Noah Chadwick

Goalie: Dryden McKay, Dennis Hildeby

#10 Nick Moldenhauer

Age: 19

Height/Weight: 5’10 170 lbs

Position: Right Wing

Shoots: Right

Draft: 3rd Round 95th overall, 2022

The Toronto Maple Leafs drafted Nick Moldenhaur out of Chicago in the USHL where he was coming off a season in which he scored 18 goals and 43 points in 41 games.

He went back to the same team last year and scored 30 goals and 75 points in 55 games.

This year he is playing for Michigan in the Big 10.

Moldenhaur is most famous for a gruesome and, what I imagine was a life threatening, injury where a skate cut his carotid artery forcing him to get a blood transfusion.

Like almost all Leafs prospects, he was drafted because his positioning, situational awareness and on-ice intelligence – aka his “hockey sense” – far exceeds his talent.

The Leafs feel – probably correctly – that players with a strong metal facet to their game have a leg up on their similarly talented peers.

Why do you think guys like Minten, Robertson and Fraser have fast-tracked it to the NHL? Like Moldenhaur, their skills are bolstered by intelligence.

Moldenhaur is also a very determined, hard-working player and likely would have been drafted higher if he hadn’t had so many injuries in his draft year.

He appears to be taking a similar route to the NHL as Matthew Knies (three seasons in the USHL and then moving on to the Big 10) and the Toronto Maple Leafs can only hope he is half as good.

#9 Roni Hirvonen

Age:  21

Height/Weight: 5’9 176 lbs.

Position: Centre

Shoots: Left

Draft: 2nd round, 59th overall, 2020

Hirvonen is a sneaky-good prospect. He won’t wow you with talent, but his kind of positional awareness and overall intelligence probably works a bit better in the pro-game where NHL coaches demand that.

In lesser leagues than the NHL, future NHL player have a much bigger talent separation over their non-future NHL playing peers than is seen in the NHL, and so there is always a tendency for them to use that separation to succeed without playing the kind of disciplined, positional game you see at the pro level.

That doesn’t work in the NHL, because even the best pro players only have a slight edge over anyone else. So players already used to playing a determined, smart, positionally sound, defensively strong game tend to transition better.

Hirvonen, strikes me as a player who might actually be better in the NHL than he is in the minors.

He has played the last several years in SM-liiga  in Finland.  This year he will debut for the Toronto Marlies and figures to be one of their better players.

It is not impossible that he makes his NHL debut this season as a call-up.

He has been solid in the World Juniors, even captaining team Finland.  He projects as, at best, a 3C in the NHL, but then again, he’s mostly played as an under-ager in a men’s pro league and has never been slotted in in a position to score a lot of points.

Where he to add more offense to his game in the AHL, his NHL prospects would be a lot better, but at the minimum he should be a much better version of what Pontus Holmberg currently is.

#8 Mikko Kokkonen

Age: 22

Height/Weight: 5’11” 198 lbs.

Position: Defense

Shoots: Left

Draft: 3rd Round, 84th Overall 2019

Kokkonen played his rookie year in the AHL last year, getting into 36 games, after playing 11 the year before for the Toronto Marlies.  He’s 22 and was taken in the 3rd round of the 2019 draft.

Last year we ranked him 10th, the same as he was the year before.

He probably will still be a decent NHL player, and likely debut in the NHL this season, but everyone ahead of him on this list has more upside.  His skating maybe isn’t NHL level, so his upside is limited by that.  Still he’s really smart and talented and has good potential.

The Leafs blue-line is weak and he was either one of the last cuts or he made the team (at the time of writing, it is unknown which).

Kokkonen is a lock to become an NHL defenseman.  If he was a better skater, he’d have elite potential, but like most of the prospects on this list he is flawed and that is why he was available when the Leafs picked.

Kokkonen is smart, determined, and he does have some offensive upside to his game as well.  The odds of him being a star player are low, but there is a chance.

At the very least, he should be a serviceable player a la Travis Dermott or Timothy Liljegren (guys who, at the very least, can destroy sheltered third-pairing minutes on a top team).

#7 Ty Voit

Age:   20

Height/Weight:  5’9 150lbs

Position: Centre/  Right Wing

Shoots:  Right

Draft:   5th round 153rd overall 2021

Voit is not the pure sniper that Nick Robertson is, but they are similar players in that they are both small, both drafted out of the OHL, where they dominated, and both are no-quit guys who are determined to do whatever it takes to win.

Whereas Robertson scored 55 goals and 86 points in 46 games after being drafted, the less goal-oriented Voit scored 105 points in 65 games.  Not quite as good, but still very excellent never the less.

Voit is the poster child for the 2021 draft which was even more random than normal NHL drafts which are already extremely random.

He was picked in the 5th round after no one saw him play the year before.

His post-draft explosion is very exciting and he is now one of the Leafs top prospects, owing to a very high upside.

Voit is a playmaker with a good shot, and like virtually every player on this list, he’s a very, very smart player known mostly for his excellent positioning and anticipation.

The only thing that stops him from being a top prospect and a higher pick is that he’s so small.

Still, the NHL’s bias against size is mostly ridiculous so there is no reason he can’t make it if he keeps developing like he has since being drafted.

Obviously at 150 LBS he needs to put on weight, but that likely won’t hold him back.

#6 Fraser Minten

Age:  19

Height/Weight:  6’1 194 LBS

Position: Centre

Shoots: Left

Draft: 2nd round, 38th overall 2022 NHL Entry Draft.

Putting together this list, it’s hard not to get exited about the future of the Toronto Maple Leafs.  Every player on this list is a smart, determined player whose mental game compliments their physical gifts.

I would bet that all ten of these players make the NHL, and that several of them become star players.

Minten is already challenging for an NHL spot, and he deserves to be in the NHL for longer than just a nine-game tryout.

Like everyone in the Leafs system, he is smart. He makes his living on his better-than-average anticipation and positioning.

Unlike many guys on this list, Minten isn’t small.  He’s added 10 pounds since last year, and if things go right he could be the third-line centre on a Cup Competitor at age 19.

After being drafted, he stayed in the WHL and scored 11 more goals and 17 more points in ten less games.

He might not have superstar potential, but then again, maybe he’s another Braydon Point ! I mean, that’s a best case scenario, but eventually the Toronto Maple Leafs have to hit on a randomly drafted superstar and Minten might be their best bet.

#5 Easton Cowan

Age:  18

Height/Weight:   5’10 170lbs

Position:  Left Wing

Shoots:   Left

Draft:  1st round 28th overall 2021

The Toronto Maple Leafs went off the board when they selected Easton Cowan 28th overall this past summer.

I have an entire professional league to cover, so I don’t pretend to have opinions on junior players or where they should be drafted, but it always seems weird to me when fans get upset about a team going off the board and making a surprise pick.

The NHL Entry Draft is a crapshoot at the best of times.  Even when you pick first you don’t necessarily have a guaranteed star player.  If you pick in the top ten, at least 40% of the time you won’t get a very good player.

So when you pick 28th, who cares who. you take?

The Toronto Maple Leafs clearly saw something other teams didn’t, because they took Cowen and were not willing to risk trading down for him.

It seems they were right, too, since he almost made the NHL immediately after being drafted.  While it is expected that Cowan will be sent back to junior, as I write this, he is still with the big club at the end of camp.

Cowan is a potentially awesome player because he has first round talent and he’s just as smart and determined as every other player on this list.

LIke Nick Robertson, he’s always going. He’s a dogged player who is impossible to knock off the puck. He isn’t a huge guy, but he is extremely fit, even for a pro athlete.

He is the kind of player with a non-stop motor who can take his god-given talent and do more with it than similarly talented players because he doesn’t know the meaning of the word quit.

Like virtually every single Leafs prospect, he is smart, positionally sound, hyper-aware and a master of anticipation.

He’s a playmaker, but he can shoot. His skating is top notch, and he’s got high-end potential because he’s so smart.  He doesn’t have the flat-out talent of a Marner or a Nylander, but his ability to protect the puck, his skating, and his motor will make him a very good NHL player, at the least.

He is only 18 and can get better. His potential is a star player, maybe something less than a franchise player but even that isn’t completely out of the question.  The fact that he could probably play in the NHL right now, despite not possessing the top-of-the-draft skill of a Bedard or Fantilli says a ton about him and his potential.

#4 Topi Niemela

Age: 21

Height/Weight: 5′ 11″ 169 lbs

Position: Defense

Shoots: Right

Draft: 3rd Round, 64th Overall 2020

The Toronto Maple Leafs are going to start the year with Mark Giordano and Timothy Liljegren on their third pairing, but Liljegren will be in the top-four before too long, while Gio will be spending most nights in the press-box.

It is very possible that by the time the playoffs role around, the Leafs third pairing consists of Mikko Kokkonen and Topi Niemela.

Both could probably play in the NHL right now, and Kokkonen probably will.

But Niemela has the higher potential.  Though he lacks the offensive skill to truly become an elite NHL player, he could easily become a top-pairing star.

At worst, he should be a very good second-pairing player on a good team.

Some people have called him the Leafs top prospect, but I think that is ridiculous.  He just doesn’t have the upside of anyone ahead of him on this list, and I think that’s the most important thing to evaluate prospects on.

Niemela is a smart, two-way defender who is excellent at puck moving, but needs to get stronger to really succeed in the NHL.   He’s the Leafs highest potential defensive prospect, but he’s nowhere near other top NHL prospects like Simon Nemac or Luke Hughes.

Still, a good #2 or a solid #3 is nothing to sneer at.  Niemela should be a solid, if unspectacular, pro.

#3. Nick Robertson

Age:  22

Height/Weight:  5’9 183 lbs

Position:  Left Wing

Shoots:  Left

Draft: 2nd Round 53rd overall, 2020

Nick Robertson hasn’t played much hockey in the last three years due to injuries and the Covid Pandemic.

But injuries are random and all hockey players are prone to them.

The NHL is full of small guys who play like Robertson, so I don’t my any of the theorizing about how he plays and his size.

Robertson was #1 last year on our list, and he’s dropped to #3 only because of how good the other two guys are.

His potential is still extremely high.

Robertson has an elite NHL shot and he never quits. He’s an animal out there and like all Leafs prospects, his natural talents are augmented by incredible intelligence.

If he is healthy and hits his potential Robertson will be a 40-50 goals scorer in the NHL.

He has superstar potential, and once he puts together a stretch of games where he is healthy his stock is going to shoot straight up.

If Robertson doesn’t start in the NHL this season, the Leafs will have made a terrible mistake, but he will likely dominate the AHL and be the first call up.

His work ethic, and never-quit attitude would make him an NHL player even if he wasn’t as talented as he is.  I expect big things from Nick Robertson.

#2 Matthew Knies

Age:  21

Height/Weight: 6’3 210 LBS

Position:  LW

Shoots: Left

Draft: 2nd Round. 57th overall, 2021

For the second year in a row, Matthew Knies is the second best prospects in the Toronto Maple Leafs organization.

This is definitely the last year he will appear on this list, because he is a going to get every chance to stick in the NHL this year.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are a team that hopes to content, and they are confident using Matthew Knies on their second line to start the season.  There is even a good chance he’s the team’s first-line left-winger by the end of the season.  He already is their best winger, because, while Tyler Bertuzzi is good, he’s also overrated.

Knies has incredible upside and is the Toronto Maple Leafs best chance at replacing the value that Michael Bunting was bringing for the last two seasons at $900 K.  When paired with Matthews and Marner, Bunting, at least at 5v5, was putting up Franchise Player level numbers.   If Knies can do even half of that, the Leafs will be happy.

But his absolute top-shelf ceiling might just be a Franchise Player who doesn’t have to play with other Franchise Players to be one.  That’s a long shot, but being a 30 goals, star power-forward is not.

In other words, he’s not likely to become Matthew Tkachuk, but it’s not impossible.

Knies looked great in the playoffs last year.  His numbers backed this up.  He is an unstoppable force with the puck, and he protects as well as veteran hall of fame bound players.

The only question about Knies right now is if he’s a great complimentary player or a superstar.   He is going to be fun to watch.

#1 Joseph Woll

Age:  25

Height/Weight:  6’3 203 LBS

Position:  G

Shoots: Left

Draft: 3rd Round, 62nd Overall, 2016 NHL Entry Drafty

The Toronto Maple Leafs top prospect is Joseph Woll, and the reason for that is because goaltending is, by far, the most important position in the NHL.

Even though Connor McDavid is the best player in the NHL, and even though Sidney Crosby and Mario Lemieux were before him, whoever ends up being the NHL’s best goalie every season is worth more.

You just never know who it will be.

If goalies were as consistent as skaters, the biggest star in the game would always be a goalie.  Is consistantly awesome, and almost everyone would say he’s the best goalie alive.  He has just two NHL seasons were he finished above a .920 save percentage.  He has more Stanley Cups than Vezinas, and there are 10 different Vezina winners in the last ten years.

But, last year, split between the AHL and NHL, Joseph Woll had the kind of season that gets you mentioned with the best players alive.

With the Marlies he stopped 92.7 % of all shots.

With the Leafs, he stopped 93.2% of all shots.

Do that for a full season in the NHL, you get the Vezina Trophy and an $8 million dollar contract.  We have no idea if the Joseph Woll we saw last year is the one we will see this year.

But, you can’t just ignore that either.  And if he does it again, he’s the most valuable prospect the Leafs have developed since Auston Matthews.

To put it a different way, Auston Matthews could win the Hart Trophy, but if Joseph Woll posts a .930 save percentage for 45+ games, he would technically be the more valuable player.

Since no one else on this list has that kind of upside, Joseph Woll has to be considered the Leafs top prospect at the moment.