Toronto Maple Leafs: Breaking Down the 2023-24 Blue-Line
By James Tanner
Morgan Rielly
Injuries and the Pandemic have made it so that Morgan Rielly has only played one full season out of the last four.
Additionally, he’s only cracked 30 5v5 points once during the last four years, which he did in 21-22 when he scored 36 5v5 points.
In his career year, 2018-19, when he should have been nominated for the Norris Trophy, he scored 46 5v5 points.
Rielly will turn 30 halfway through this season.
Players rarely have career seasons in their late twenties, so it is extremely unlikely *(though not impossible, given who he plays with) that Rielly gets back to being an elite top-ten defenseman, as he was in the 2018-19 season.
Despite Auston Matthews being his most common teammate last year, the Leafs only scored a single goal more than their opponents when Rielly was on the ice last year. His Expected goals was just under 51%, so it’s not like he was unlucky either.
Considering the Leafs won 75-37 when Matthews was on the ice, but he and Rielly only won their combined minutes by 4 goals, and that Rielly is their #1 defenseman, this isn’t good.
On the bright side, both players had better expected results when paired together than apart, if not actual results.
Last year Rielly scored 1.05 points per 60, down from his career high of 1.72.
Rielly posted a 52% Xgoals rating.
For comparison, Cale Makar (the NHL’s best defenseman) scored 1.54 points per 60 minutes of 5v5 ice time, while posting a 57% Xgoals rating.
At this point, Rielly is still an excellent player, he just shouldn’t be a competing team’s #1.
On a positive note, he scored 2.7 P/60 in the playoffs, while posting a 56% Xgoals rating, which is Cale Markar territory. While this is something to build on, it’s not something you can expect to repeat itself.