Toronto Maple Leafs: Breaking Down the 2023-24 Blue-Line
The Toronto Maple Leafs Blue-Line (Current Composition)
The Toronto Maple Leafs blue-line is assumed to be made up of these pairings *(though keep in mind that change can happen between now and the start of the season).
Morgan Rielly – TJ Brodie
Jake McCabe – Timothy Liljegren
Mark Giordano – John Klingberg
extras: Connor Timmins, Simon Benoit
Age
This blue line features a 39 year-old, and 3 total players in their 30s. It also has 2 x 29 year-olds, both of whom will turn 30 this season, which basically makes this an ancient blue-line. Only Timothy Liljegren, 24, has any upside among regulars.
This is extremely concerning. Ideally you want a nice mix of young and old, but you definitely would prefer at least one player on an entry-level deal with some upside. The problem here is that players tend to take a nose-dive when they hit their 30s.
Elite players last longer, but the Leafs don’t have any elite players.
NHL players tend to have their best season from 23-25 and the Leafs only have a single player in that range, and it’s Liljegren a player clearly not trusted by the coach.
Style
Brodie is a puck moving defenseman with elite defensive skills. This is his fourth season with the Leafs, and until now, he and Rielly made a pretty great top pairing since both were putting up star-level (if not truly ELITE) performances.
But the coach broke them up. Rielly has declined (amazing playoffs last year excepted) and so has Brodie. Brodie wasn’t very good in the playoffs last year, and it’s hard to know what to expect from him at age 33.
To say the least, you’d probably like him on a second pairing, but he remains the Leafs best RH option.
McCabe is a hard hitting, physical player who is also a puck-mover. Unfortunately, out of the six players expected to start the season on the Toronto Maple Leafs blue-line, he is the only physical player (and he isn’t exactly Radko Gudas or Luke Schenn).
All of the Leafs six defenseman are puck-movers. I have long advocated for such a set-up, but ideally you’d have at least two guys like McCabe and one of them should be elite.
Rielly and Klingberg are clearly the kinds of players people think of when you say “puck-moving defenseman” but Giordano, Brodie, McCabe and Liljegren are all hybrd-types who play smart games and can offer excellent defense to go along with their offense.
Strengths
The strengths of the Toronto Maple Leafs blue-line are that they are great puck movers. All six players expected to start opening night can be considered to be puck-moving defensemen, and the Leafs have a lot of superstar forwards to pair with them.
This could end up being a great situation.
John Klingberg could thrive in a sheltered role where his only job is to score. Marc Giordano could play like he did in the first half of last year, and the Leafs would have a great bottom pairing.
If Rielly plays like he did in the playoffs, maybe he can get back to his elite ways. TJ Brodie got terrible results in last year’s playoffs, but his numbers were pretty good and he’s a smart player who shouldn’t be too affected by the decline of his physical skills.
Jake McCabe could be the bargain of the century, assuming his playoff performance was just some bad results during a short-sample size, while Timothy Liljegren could finally become the player we always hoped.
The problem here? Outside of the team’s puck-moving abilities, these aren’t so much “strengths” as they are a “best case scenario.”
Weaknesses
- Strengths (see above)
- Age (five of the six players are either already 30+ or will be at some point this season)
- Lack of Physicality (Only McCabe is physical)
- Lack of Upside (Outside of Liljegren, no one has ANY upside)
- Lack of Elite Talent / Star Power (Elite players are the most important factor in any blue-line and the Leafs don’t figure to have any).
- Poor Balance (obvious)
- No Depth (Simon Benoit is actually going to play. Yikes).
- Possible Klingberg in the top-four.
Morgan Rielly
Injuries and the Pandemic have made it so that Morgan Rielly has only played one full season out of the last four.
Additionally, he’s only cracked 30 5v5 points once during the last four years, which he did in 21-22 when he scored 36 5v5 points.
In his career year, 2018-19, when he should have been nominated for the Norris Trophy, he scored 46 5v5 points.
Rielly will turn 30 halfway through this season.
Players rarely have career seasons in their late twenties, so it is extremely unlikely *(though not impossible, given who he plays with) that Rielly gets back to being an elite top-ten defenseman, as he was in the 2018-19 season.
Despite Auston Matthews being his most common teammate last year, the Leafs only scored a single goal more than their opponents when Rielly was on the ice last year. His Expected goals was just under 51%, so it’s not like he was unlucky either.
Considering the Leafs won 75-37 when Matthews was on the ice, but he and Rielly only won their combined minutes by 4 goals, and that Rielly is their #1 defenseman, this isn’t good.
On the bright side, both players had better expected results when paired together than apart, if not actual results.
Last year Rielly scored 1.05 points per 60, down from his career high of 1.72.
Rielly posted a 52% Xgoals rating.
For comparison, Cale Makar (the NHL’s best defenseman) scored 1.54 points per 60 minutes of 5v5 ice time, while posting a 57% Xgoals rating.
At this point, Rielly is still an excellent player, he just shouldn’t be a competing team’s #1.
On a positive note, he scored 2.7 P/60 in the playoffs, while posting a 56% Xgoals rating, which is Cale Markar territory. While this is something to build on, it’s not something you can expect to repeat itself.
T.J Brodie
T.J Brodie was acquired by the Toronto Maple Leafs in free-agency three years ago.
Brodie has one more year left on his contract with a $5 million cap-hit, and it’s safe to say he has been worth every penny so far.
Playing mostly on the top pairing with Morgan Rielly, the Toronto Maple Leafs have pretty much destroyed the opposition whenever he’s played.
In his three years in Toronto, the Leafs have won Brodie’s 5v5 minutes by 65%, 55% and 54%. These results are not just lucky either, his expected goals rating in each of the last three seasons is 54%, 53%, and 56%.
Even though he was criticized for having a “bad playoffs” he posted a 54% Expected Goals rating while losing his minutes 8-6 in a very short sample size. His partner, McCabe, wasn’t too hot, but Brodie was more or less just in stuck with a guy who wasn’t playing well.
Given that he’s always been slow and rarely hits, and doesn’t win games with his skill so much as his intelligence, it seems doubtful he’ll decline too much even though he’s now 33.
It was always fun to make fun of the idea he was going to get bought out (which had to be the silliest narrative of the summer, except maybe besides “Max Domi is worth $3 million dollars”) but his salary does make him a potential trade candidate.
That said, I don’t see how the Leafs could lose him and improve their team.
Brodie may not be an ideal top pairing defenseman, but he’s been a low-key star the entire time he’s been with the Leafs and he is underrated, and perhaps makes the Leafs blue-line slightly underrated.
The Toronto Maple Leafs need more physical players on their blue-line and they definitely need more high-end players and players with potential, but TJ Brodie is the furthest thing from a problem.
The only issue with Brodie is that he might suddenly fall off a cliff, performance-wise, since he’s at the age where that tends to happen.
The strength of the Leafs blue-line depends heavily on how much gas he’s got left in the tank.
Jake McCabe
Jake McCabe was acquired near last year’s trade deadline from the Chicago Blackhawks.
He joined the Toronto Maple Leafs for 21 games and was very effective, at least during the regular season.
McCabe posted a CF% of 53% and an XGoals rating of 54% on the way to absolutely insane results: the Leafs beat their opponents 20-8 when he was on the ice.
Of course, it takes a lot of luck to get those kinds of results, and the playoffs were not kind to McCabe.
The Leafs were outscored 11-5 in the playoffs, and McCabes numbers were terrible. The Leafs allowed more shot-attempts, shots, scoring chances and goals than they themselves picked up, and were thoroughly dominated when McCabe was on the ice.
The Leafs are really hoping that Regular Season McCabe is the version they get this year, because playoff McCabe hurt the team.
If McCabe can get back to what he did when he first joined the Leafs – and it was a domination until the playoffs rolled around – then he will be an incredible bargain because the Blackhawks are paying half his salary and he has only a $2 million dollar cap-hit.
If McCabe is the top-pairing-worthy borderline star player they had last season for 21 games, then the Toronto Maple Leafs blue-line will be a lot better than people think this year.
However, his playoff performance was so horrible, and McCabe is going to turn 30 just after the season starts, so it’s impossible to know what he’s going to bring to the table this year.
The Leafs have Morgan Rielly, TJ Brodie and Jake McCabe as their top-three defensemen, and anyone being honest has no idea what to expect from any of them. This could be a solid top-four or the worst one in the NHL.
At this point you can’t know.
Timothy Liljegren
Entering his age-24 season, Timothy Liljegren still has the potential to be a great player. When you watch him, and look at his numbers, it seems like he should be promoted to the top pairing and make TJ Brodie into a second-pairing player.
But then the playoffs role around and the coach makes him a healthy scratch.
Two years in a row.
Last year the Leafs acquired Luke Schenn and Erik Gustuffson, and then instead of being a regular, Liljegren was part of a platoon.
Considering up to this point in the season he had incredible statistics which, even if they were on the third pairing, were far better than most teams get from their third pairing, this seemed to destroy his confidence.
After the trade deadline he didn’t appear nearly as good, and now instead of an up-and-comer who has top-pairing potential, we are left in the same boat as Liljegren himself: if the coach and team don’t believe in him, our confidence in predicting an eventual career potential as a solid #2 is at an all-time low.
Two years ago, the Toronto Maple Leafs won 58% Liljegren’s minutes, which are extremely good results. Additionally, he posted a 59% expected goals rating, meaning he deserved those results.
Last year, he regressed slightly, but the Leafs still won his minutes (52%) and his XGoals was still a very-good 53%. Again, these are bottom-pairing numbers, but in practice, it really shouldn’t matter.
I still think it was a major coaching blunder for Keefe to ever take Liljegren out of the lineup. I think he long ago should have been promoted and the fact he wasn’t was basically the same reason I wanted Keefe to be replaced.
His scoring was down last year, but two years ago he posted a points/60 (5v5) of 1.34, which is higher than all but one of Morgan Rielly’s last four seasons.
If the coach showed any confidence in him at all, I’d think he was the Toronto Maple Leafs best defenseman.
He is their only regular with any upside.
Mark Giordano
Although Mark Giordano is one of the oldest players in the NHL, his statistics have been excellent while he has been with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
He may no longer be the 74 point Norris Winner he used to be, but Giordano is an incredibly intelligent player who has been able to compensate his physical decline with his sharp mind.
Like Liljegren, his numbers too a step back last year – from an elite 3rd pairing to a merely excellent one.
After being over 60% in both expected goals and results in his first year with the Leafs (which was only a 20 game sample) in his second year he posted 59% GF and 55% XGoals.
He scored 1.04 P/60 and Rielly scored 1.05.
So basically, for a 3rd pairing player, Giordano has been outstanding with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The only problem?
He is 40 years old before the season starts, and last year in the playoffs he fell off of a cliff.
The Leafs got absolutely dusted in the playoffs whenever Giordano was on the ice. He played all 11 games and showed why it’s so problematic to have living legends on your roster.
The Leafs kept playing Giordano every night even though he couldn’t cut it. It was embarrassing, and he probably should have retired, but obviously he’s a legend for a reason and probably doesn’t want to go out like that.
Still – when he was on the ice last spring, Tampa and Florida feasted. He 46% of the shot-attempts. 45% of the shots, 27% of the goals and an XGoals rating of 43%.
One reason to be very pessimistic about the Toronto Maple Leafs blue-line is that Mark Giordano is still on it.
John Klingberg
It defies reason why the Toronto Maple Leafs decided to pay John Klingberg $4 million dollars to play hockey this year.
Had they not signed him, they’d arguably be a better team and wouldn’t currently be over the salary cap.
Klingberg is like Tyson Barrie, but much worse. Barrie at least tended to put up solid peripheral numbers and was actually quite a bit underrated in Toronto.
Klingberg just stinks.
The last time Klingberg’s team got positive results when he was on the ice, was the same year Mark Giordano won the Norris. Ever since then, with the exception of his 17 games in Minnesota (where his Expected Goals Rating was 43%), his team has lost his minutes.
With five other puck moving defenseman, he’d have to be the best power-play defenseman in the world in order for his special-teams play to make up for how bad he is at 5v5 where 80% of the game is played.
His Expected Goals Rating in Anaheim last year was 38% and he was the worst player in the NHL until he was traded to the Wild where he was also terrible.
Klingberg scored under 1 point per 60 in Anaheim, and just over 1 point per 60 in MN, which puts him well under Morgan Rielly overall.
His offense is overrated, his defense is impossible to underrate, and his overall game is terrible. He’s also 31 and players his age don’t get better, they get worse.
Matt Dumba, who played ahead of Klingberg on the Wild, somehow got less money than the Leafs game Klingberg.
This was a bad signing, inexplicable even. There is no way for the Toronto Maple Leafs to justify using Klingberg ahead of developing a prospect like Topi Niemela.
Depth? There Isn’t Any
The Toronto Maple Leafs played games last year with Timothy Liljegren and Erik Gustafson in the press-box.
That made them, arguably, the deepest blue-line in the NHL. I say arguable because even though no one was sitting anyone close to as good as those two, the Leafs were playing Luke Schenn and Justin Holl in their top-four.
Their blue-line, in last year’s playoffs, was horrible. Only an improbable star-turn from Morgan Rielly made it palatable.
That can’t be counted on this year, and neither can the team’s depth.
Connor Timmins has done well in sheltered minutes, but clearly the coach has no trust in him. He’s 24 and isn’t likely to turn into anything special. If you have to play him, it’s fine, but if he can’t even beat out Klingberg and Giordano to become a regular in training camp, he might as well just retire.
As for Simon Benoit, he’s worse than Jordie Benn or Victor Mete from last year. He’s worse than Klingberg and because he hits and plays tough he will likely get minutes – minutes in which he will be crushed because he is a bad player and signing him was a mistake.
I mean, he’s literally one of the most talented players alive in the world, just not compared to the players in the NHL. He will likely be one of the AHL’s best players. I don’t have a single skill that is as good as Simon Benoit’s hockey skills, but unfortunately, that isn’t helpful when you’re trying to make a team that wants to win the Stanley Cup.
Clearly someone should have spoken up and told Brad Treliving that it wouldn’t be a good idea to re-assemble the 2022-23 Anaheim Mighty Ducks blue-line.
Outlook of the Toronto Maple Leafs Blue-Line
You don’t need a magic eight ball to know that the outlook is poor.
A 40 year old, 4 x 30 year olds and a guy the coach won’t use in the playoffs is not a recipe for success.
The additions of John Klingberg and Simon Benoit really show how much the team misses Kyle Dubas, and make you wonder if they realize how bad this group is or if they are actually going to go into the season with it.
The team is desperate for an elite player. Elite players are the most important thing on a hockey team, and in the NHL, at the professional level, far more important than depth or balance.
Every team in the NHL with an elite defenseman has a better blue-line that the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Vegas, Florida, Dallas, Carolina, New Jersey, Edmonton, Boston, New York, Colorado, Tampa, Long Island, the Jets, the Senators, Calgary, Vancouver, Pittsburgh, Nashville, Columbus and Buffalo all have better blue-lines.
I’m sure the other 12 teams might even make a case for having a better blue-line, but for sure those 19 teams have better groups of defenseman than the Leafs do.
Can a team with (the generously ranked) 20th best blue-line in the NHL win the Stanley Cup?
Probably not. The Toronto Maple Leafs are going to have to make a big improvement here if they want to compete.
Next. The Leafs Are Going to Trade Nylander. dark
They keep making the playoffs and getting disappointed, and maybe the time is now to add the one thing they’ve been missing all these years: a legitimate #1 defenseman.