Toronto Maple Leafs: Can Matthew Knies Win the Calder?

The Toronto Maple Leafs are hoping that Matthew Knies can replace the value Michael Bunting brought to the team for the last two years for $900K.

After Zach Hyman became a star, and Michael Bunting arguably topped him, the Toronto Maple Leafs are hoping for a lot of Knies this season.

The question of Matthew Knies winning the calder trophy is complicated.

One, is he even a surefire NHLer?

He sure looked like one last year in his playoff audition.

If he is in the NHL, where would he slot in the Leafs lineup?

Then, after that is figured out, can he win it given what is shaping up to be one of the strongest rookie classes we have seen in a long time heading into the 2023-24 season?

For the purposes of this article and given his playing ability as evidenced in the 2023 playoffs, I am assuming he will be on the roster for all 82 games next season barring injury.

The Leafs will need contributions from cheap young players and Knies has a great opportunity to vastly outperform his contract.

As well, I will try to take a look at quite a few other notable prospects who are slated to be rookies this upcoming season. Their situations and their ability would obviously play a large factor in whether or not Knies is even in contention for the award.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Internal Factors

Given the acquisitions of Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi, whether Matthew Knies has a chance at the Calder trophy will be largely dependent on where they play.

Does Bertuzzi find chemistry on the top line?

Is he the team’s first choice to play there, or does Knies get a shot?

Is Domi seen as a top-six winger or third line winger/centre?

How these questions get answered will greatly effect Knies’ playing time, as he would likely need top six minutes at the minimum to compete for the rookie of the year trophy.

If he doesn’t spend a substantial amount of time in the top-six, his chances drop significantly.

Not only will his quality of teammates be considerably lower but his ice-time will suffer. Of course, he will need to prove that he is ready for top-six minutes.

Based on how the Leafs have handled young players like Nick Robertson, Rasmus Sandin, and Timothy Liljegren, there is no reason to believe they won’t take a merit-based approach. In fact, he may be more likely to play lower down the lineup due to the fact he’s a young player given the recent examples listed above.

However, if he is able to find himself on the first or second line playing with either the Matthews-Marner or Tavares-Nylander duos, he will have a chance.

His play in the playoffs alone proves this, through seven games he scored one goal and three assists. Although the postseason is a different game and it’s hard to extrapolate anything from a seven game sample size, he produced at a 0.57 points-per-game (PPG) pace. Over a full 82 game season, that would work out to 47 points.

As well, we have seen many good examples in recent seasons of top NCAA standout prospects who have transitioned well to the NHL game. One is 2023 Calder winner, Matty Beniers. Can Knies follow in his footsteps?

External factors

Outside of the Toronto Maple Leafs organization, the 2023-24 rookie class is shaping up to be very strong.

Logan Cooley will likely start with the Arizona Coyotes and other top prospects like Connor Bedard, Adam Fantilli, Shane Wright, are set to play their rookie seasons in 2023-24.

Many of these players are playing on weaker teams which will by default make them guaranteed top-six forwards out of the gate. As well, with examples like Arizona, Columbus, and Chicago, there is a very large incentive for them to play Cooley, Fantilli, Jiricek, and Bedard in prominent roles.

These are some of the very best when it comes to NHL-affiliated prospects.

The top-three choices at the 2023 Draft in June all have very solid cases of their own to be Calder trophy finalists.

Bedard has been receiving Connor McDavid comparisons for years now.

Barring a brutal injury that derails his rookie season as well, he is the favorite to capture rookie of the year honours this season.

Outside of him, the players mentioned above all have high expectations for themselves.

Fantilli is a player who would likely be a first overall pick in almost any other year if it weren’t for Bedard, and he was selected third. He joins a Columbus Blue Jackets squad that is loaded with talent high in their lineup like Patrik Laine and Johnny Gaudreau.

The man sandwiched between them, Leo Carlsson, will be joining an up-and-coming Anaheim Ducks team that is packed with talent like; Trevor Zegras, Troy Terry, and Mason McTavish.