Toronto Maple Leafs: Letting Nylander Walk Maybe Better Than Trade

The optics of the Toronto Maple Leafs letting William Nylander walk in free-agency for no return would be terrible.

That, however, is still one of the Toronto Maple Leafs better options.

William Nylander is a free agent after this season.  If he isn’t signed by then, the Leafs won’t get anything for him.

Nylander, however, currently makes only a $7 million cap-hit, which, relative to what he is practically guaranteed to provide next season, is the Leafs most valuable contract (excepting any potential star performances they might get from a player on a league-minimum entry deal).

40 goals, 80 points, a play-driving elite player who is a scoring-chance generating machine, and one of the best third-options in the entire league is what the Leafs would be giving up if they lose Nylander.

That level of production helps make the Toronto Maple Leafs a Cup Contender entering this season, and must be measured against any trade the team makes.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Letting Nylander Walk Maybe Better Than Trade

Here are the Leafs options for William Nylander, from best to worst:

1. Re-sign him to a team-friendly contract
2. Trade him for an elite-defenseman and win the trade
3. Re-sign him to a fair contract
4. Trade him in trade that doesn’t make current team worse.
5. Re-sign him to a player-friendly expensive contract
6. Let him walk for nothing, but keep him for one more year
7.  Make a good trade for the future that hurts the team right now
8. Make a bad trade right now

Of these eight options, only the top 3 are really good outcomes.  Four and five would be OK and the rest are all pretty bad.

However, option six is still better than making a bad trade right now.  The Senators received a very bad return for their star winger, and if the Leafs can’t do significantly better, letting Nylander walk for nothing would be a better outcome.  At least that way they’d still be an elite team in the upcoming season.

The Senators received Donovan Sebrango, a 21 year-old former 3rd round pick and a B-level prospect, at best.  They  also got Dominik Kubalik, a 20 goal scorer who is 28.  He replaces about half of what DeBrincat can do, but that’s generous because he’s in no way a star player.

They also got a fourth round pick which is meaningless, and a first rounder that is lotto protected.

DeBrincat is younger and has a higher career high in goals than Nylander.  Nylander has a year left on his deal, and DeBrincat didn’t, but Detroit was able to sign him right away to a deal that is less than a million dollars more than Nylander currently makes and won’t include any years in his 30s, which Nylander’s new deal will.

If this is the return the Leafs can expect, it’s better to let him walk. Simply put, any trade has to bring more value that Nylander himself brings to the team in this upcoming season or else it just makes more sense to use him as an “own  rental.”