The Toronto Maple Leafs will be putting a longstanding question to the test in 2023-24.
For years, the Toronto Maple Leafs used a “studs and duds” philosophy in spending their allotted salary cap money, and despite that, they still managed to be among the NHL’s deepest teams.
Now that they are nowhere close to that, it will be interesting to see if 4 x star players is alone enough to make them into contenders.
I think it will, but their depth is putrid.
Their bottom-six goes from having Ryan O’Reilly, Noah Acciairi and Matthew Knies (which was a legitimately scary 3rd line) to dressing 6 x replacement players.
Their blue-line is somehow worse.
So if the Leafs do well this year, it will conclusively prove that 4 x star players are enough to compete, and that depth is an unneeded luxury, because this team, as currently constructed, has no depth.
The Toronto Maple Leafs Blue-line and Bottom-Six Aren’t Playoff Material
Star power is better than depth. That should go without saying at a pro level, and it is why the Leafs still figure to be a contender this year.
However, their blue-line lacks both star power and depth. It is not physical, and it is old.
TJ Brodie is 33. If he declines at all, the Leafs are in trouble.
Morgan Rielly is 28, he’s a solid player, we know what he brings, but he doesn’t have much upside and he is no longer really an elite player.
Timothy Liljegren puts up great numbers but the coach clearly doesn’t trust him. Based on salary and the consensus of people covering the team, he’s going to play behind John Klingberg. This is very silly and won’t last long because it will be obvious to everyone before too much time passes that Liljegren is better.
It’s actually very possible that Liljegren ends up being the Leafs best defenseman. It is equally possible they completely waste him.
But after Rielly, Brodie and Liljegren (all of whom are at least good) the Leafs blue-line gets dicey. (It might already be before that, since Brodie looked bad in the playoffs, although his numbers were fine).
Keep in mind that of their three good defenders, they combine to have very little, if any, physical presence.
In last year’s playoffs, McCabe was outscored 11-5.
Gio, 11-4.
Both of them had an expected goals rating under 50%.
McCabe is likely a good player, and he’s cheap, but there is no denying that his most recent play was bad.
Either way, John Klingberg had a 38% xGoals rating on Anaheim, then on Minnesota he got it all the way up to 43%. (all stats naturalstattrick.com). Anyone who thinks he’ll be anything but a massive liability is kidding themselves.
As for the bottom six, it’s also brutal. Jarnkrok is OK, but Max Domi, David Kampf, Sam Lafferty, Ryan Reaves and Dylan Gambrell are low-upside replacement players who are all overpaid (except Gambrell).
One word comes to mind to describe the Leafs projected bottom-six: pathetic.
The bottom line: The Toronto Maple Leafs have the worst blue-line and bottom-six of any team that considers themselves a contender. If they don’t get stellar goaltending and amazing seasons from their four stars they might not even make the playoffs.