Toronto Maple Leafs: Ranking the NHL’s Top 5 Defensemen

The Toronto Maple Leafs might just have the NHL’s worst blue-line out of teams who consider themselves Stanley Cup Contenders.

There are many things holding the Toronto Maple Leafs blue-line back from being great. 

Their best player, Morgan Rielly, has declined in both of the last several seasons.

Their second-best player, TJ Brodie, had an awful playoffs and appears to be in decline.

Their third best player, Jake McCabe, was also terrible in the playoffs, although I feel pretty comfortable with him on the second pairing, and he could even be a decent top-pairing player.

Their fourth best player, Timothy Liljegren, might actually be their best defesnseman, but the coach doesn’t appear to care for him very much and has benched him in each of the last two playoffs (undeservedly, in my opinion).

Their fifth best player is Mark Giordano and he’s about 100 and also appears to be done.  Their sixth best player is Connor Timmins, a 25 year old question mark who does put up good numbers when he plays, but never seems to play.

Their worst player is being paid nearly $5 million dollars and was a key free-agent signing, meaning he will likely get every opportunity to play too high in the lineup.  

Uh-oh!

The Toronto Maple Leafs Blue-Line Isn’t Good

This group has almost no physical presence.  It is conceivable that Justin Holl, who they made no effort to re-sign, could be the second-best player on this blue-line. 

And, worst of all, the Toronto Maple Leafs do not have any of the NHL’s best defenseman.  Once upon  a time, Morgan Rielly was in this conversation, but that was back when Mike Babcock was coach. Sure, he’s still basically my favorite player and I think he’s awesome, but even I wouldn’t argue he’s a top-five NHL defender in 2023. (cap info capfriendly.com, stats naturalstattrick.com).

So who is?  Let’s count ’em down.

Top 5 NHL Defenseman: Rasmus Dahlin

The former number-one overall pick just turned 23 and is coming off the best season of his career so far.

After posting a solid 53 points two years ago, Dahlin increased his total by 20 last year, dropping 15 goals and 73 points for the up-and-coming Buffalo Sabres.

He posted a 53% 5v5 expected-goals percentage, and the Sabres won his minutes (53%) and he was 10th among NHL defenders with 33 5v5 points.

Without Dahling the Sabres lost their 5v5 minutes and were basically a horrible team.  All together, the Sabres ranked 21st in the NHL in 5v5 expected-goals percentage, but when Dahlin played they were 3rd.

He’s that good.

Dahlin is just hitting his stride, he’s only 23 and he will likely be way higher on this list after next season.  I think there are players who I don’t have on this list who you could quibble about not being 5th in place instead of Dahlin, but none of them are still getting better.

#3 Adam Fox

Drafted in the 3rd round, 66th overall, Adam Fox is the kind of late-draft hit that the Toronto Maple Leafs have been missing for the entirety of the Auston Matthews Era.

Fox was drafted by Calgary, then traded to Carolina and eventually New York where he established himself as one of the NHL’s premier blue-liners.

Weirdly, Fox refused to sign with either Calgary or  Carolina, and the Rangers ended up getting him for just 2 x second round picks.

Rarely has such a  trade been so much of a steal, and Fox is now the 3rd best defenseman in the NHL.   He might even be higher than that, since one of the players ahead of him is so old and injury prone.

Fox had 42 points as a rookie, then improved on that in the shortened season where he was nearly a point per game player.

His last two seasons have seen him post 74 and 72 points.

As you can see from the above chart, he’s not only a great offensive defenseman, but he is also excellent defensively.

Fox is only 25 and should be one of the premier defenders in the NHL for the next decade or so.

#2 Erik Karlsson

Erik Karlsson gets a bad rap because his defensive game is weak.  While that is indisputable, the fact is that hockey is a game in which you cannot really separate the two parts of the game – at the end of the day, the results are the results, and it doesn’t matter how you achieved them.

So yeah, you might have to pick your spots on when to use Karlsson more than Fox or Heiskanen, but you end up with better results.

Karlsson is so good that last year the Sharks won his minutes by xGoals and were tied by real goals.  Considering that they finished 29th overall, and were the worst team in the NHL when they weren’t deploying Karlsson, it’s incredibly impressive that he was able to do that.

Karlsson didn’t just score 101 points and lead all defenseman in scoring, he also led the NHL In 5v5 scoring, something arguably more important than winning the overall scoring title.

Karlsson was rumoured to be on the Toronto Maple Leafs radar, and had Brendan Shanahan not errored in the extreme and fired Kyle Dubas, Karlsson likely would be on the Leafs today.

As it is, he’s on Pittsburgh and they will look to win a 4th Stanley Cup in the Sidney Crosby Era.  If the Leafs don’t get it done, then hopefully the Penguins do.

Karlsson is 33 so who knows how he’ll follow up his amazing 2022-23 campaign, but as of right now, he’s the NHL’s second best defenseman.

The Best Defenseman Alive

I admit that this is slightly anti-climatic, but what can you do?

You can argue that Auston Matthews (the indisputably second-best player alive) is better than Connor McDavid using defense and 5v5 play. You might not convince anyone, but you could at least make a sensible argument.

You cannot do that with defenseman.

Cale Markar is the best there is, and he’s the best by a mile.

How anyone thought to select Nico Hischier or Nolan Patrick ahead of him and Heiskanen in 2017 is beyond me, but it happened. 

Makar is 24, and last season he scored at a 90 point pace.  Unlike Karlsson, he did it on an elite team, facing teams trying their hardest to take down the defending champs.

Despite his young age, Makar already has a Calder, a Cup and a Norris Trophy to his name.  He also has a Conn Smythe trophy as the Playoff MVP from the year he won the Stanley Cup.

He is over a point-per-game for his entire career, and would likely go into the Hall of Fame even if he retired tomorrow.

He is likely the best defenseman in the NHL since Niklas Lidstrom, and will go down as one of the best ever.   He has four years left on a ridiculously team-friendly contract with a measly $9 million dollar cap-hit.

It is extremely frustrating to be a Toronto Maple Leafs fan and have to see all their players be paid top dollar, while seemingly every single other superstar gets signed to a team-friendly deal.

Gripes aside, Makar is indisputably the best defenseman alive.