Toronto Maple Leafs: Mitch Marner Career Projections

Since being drafted 4th overall by the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2015, Mitch Marner has been a central figure within the organization. Along with Auston Matthews, he has represented hope for greater achievement for a once moribund franchise.

A model of consistency since making his NHL debut during the 2016-2017 season, Marner continues to reach new heights in the Toronto Maple Leafs record books.

Heading into this year, he has amassed 554 career points in 507 games and currently stands in tenth place on the Leafs all-time points list. Mats Sundin is the Leafs all-time leading point-getter with 987 points.

Let’s extrapolate using an average Marner NHL season to see how long it would take for him to surpass Sundin’s standard. We must also assume that Marner and the Leafs can reach an agreement on a contract extension after the 2024-2025 season.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Mitch Marner Career Projections

Thus far, Marner’s eighty-two-game NHL average season is 27 goals, 62 assists, and 89 points. On a per-game basis, that equates to 0.33 goals, 0.76 assists, and 1.09 points. (All stats courtesy of Hockey-Reference.com.)

Marner’s past two seasons have seen him fall just short of the century mark in points. His points per game during these two years were 1.35 and 1.24. In fact, after his sophomore season, Marner has eclipsed his 1.09 points-per-game average in five successive seasons.

Having just turned 26 years old, Marner is about to enter what should be his prime years. It’s very plausible that he sets some single-season personal bests during this time.

Marner has also been durable. He has played eighty-plus games three times during his first seven seasons and reached the seventy-game plateau in five of those years. His consistent production is matched by his availability.

Say Marner averages 70-75 games played over the next 5 seasons. That allows for some games missed due to nicks and bruises from a physical sport in a condensed schedule.

Let’s calculate his total number of points using a 1.22 points per game average. This is the median number of Marner’s last five years.

A 70-games-played season average for the next 5 years would see Marner accumulate 427 more points. A 75-games played average over 5 seasons would see Marner add 457 points to his career ledger.

Using the above parameters, the first scenario would see Marner finish his age 30 season with 981 career points, just behind Sundin’s magic number. The second hypothetical would see Marner hit 1, 011 points five years from now.

If Marner can duplicate his production from the last five years for the upcoming five, he can move past Sundin and set a new, all-time scoring standard for the Leafs.

He would then have his over-30 age seasons to further advance the new franchise mark. Another four or five “average” Marner seasons of around 80 points would move him well beyond the numbers set by Sundin.

Sustained health and a future extension are necessary for Marner to continue his chase to the top of the organization’s points list. Based on the start of his career the consistent production part of the formula should be the least of concerns towards this achievement.

Another factor to consider in all this? Matthews has 542 career points in only 481 games played. That is 1.13 points per game, slightly higher than Marner.

A best-case scenario for the Toronto Maple Leafs? Marner and Matthews are signed to extensions and they push each other in the chase for a new team scoring record.

The ultimate topper would be securing a title along the way.