Matthew Knies exceeded expectations when he joined the Toronto Maple Leafs for the end of the 2023 regular season and playoffs.
Knies did not start game 1 of the Toronto Maple Leafs first round series against Tampa Bay but when Michael Bunting was suspended three games for a hit to the head on Erik Cernak, in game 1 of the series, Knies was called upon and delivered in every way imaginable.
Starting on the third line in game 2, he quickly made his way up the lineup as he started to take shifts on the left side of both Matthews-Marner and Tavares-Nylander.
Unfortunately, Knies was injured in game 2 of the second round against Florida, after his head was slammed into the ice by Sam Bennet. Knies left the game with a concussion and was ruled out for the rest of the series.
He finished with 4 points – 1 goal, 3 assists – in 7 games in the playoffs and averaged 14:30 in the first 6 games before playing only 4:47 in the game he was injured vs Florida.
So what is a realistic expectation of Matthew Knies in his first full NHL regular season?
Toronto Maple Leafs: 2023-24 Season Expectations for Matthew Knies
Assuming Knies plays a full 82-game season it should be reasonable to expect a 45-plus point season from him. Especially if he solidifies himself in the top 6 for the majority of games and is playing alongside two of the core four members.
For instance, Michael Bunting played his first full season in the NHL in 2021-22 alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. He scored 23 goals and added 40 assists, for 63 points in 79 games.
For perspective he scored roughly the same amount of 5v5 points as Connor McDavid did that year.
Knies’ 6’3 frame allows him to shield the puck and win battles easily along the wall. His quick hands makes it easy to get out of these tight areas and helps open up space for him to make plays in the offensive zone.
Another strength of his is controlling the puck through the neutral zone while gaining speed using crossovers, which is something we don’t usually see from players with Knies’ stature.
Knies also makes a great net-front presence and does a lot of his scoring from below the hash marks, which makes him a prime candidate for the net-front position on Powerplay 2 this coming season.
The biggest question mark for Knies is if he will be able to translate his production from the NCAA and a small stint in the NHL playoffs to a full 82-game season. NCAA teams only play 34 regular season games with multiple days of rest in between most games.
The grind of an 82 game season with many back-to-back and multiple 4+ game road trips may prove to be daunting for a youngster like Knies, who is still getting his feet wet in the league.
Overall, Knies showed promise in his playoff debut, translating his skillset to the NHL in a short amount of time.
A 45-plus point season in a full 82 games is more than achievable for the rookie if he secures a top 6 role. Exciting potential awaits Knies but let’s try to temper our expectations of the rookie heading into the 2023-24 season.