Realistic Projections For 2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs Newcomers
Realistic Projections For 2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs Newcomers
Ryan Reaves
Ryan Reaves, who was signed for three seasons carrying a $1.35 million cap hit (AAV) was not signed for his offensive production.
By far the most controversial of Treliving’s signings, Reaves is not known for his offense or his defense, although, he matched a career second best of 15 points last season.
Speaking of last season, he had seven fights which is the highest single season total he has reached since 2014-15.
Over the past five seasons he has engaged in 17 total brawls.
On the higher end, I would assume he would match last season’s total. Likely, he comes in at around three given that was how much he fought in four of the past six seasons.
In terms of his limited offensive potential, his career high is 20 points and as I mentioned above, he has hit 15 twice. The likelihood that he eclipses 15 at 36 years of age is quite low.
While on the topic of box score stats, his penalty minutes are a lot lower than you would expect for his reputation. He has not reached 100 penalty minutes (PIM) since 2016-17 and he has not surpassed 50 since 2018-19.
Prediction: 12 points and 45 PIM with four fights
Tyler Bertuzzi
The Toronto Maple Leafs sneakily signed Tyler Bertuzzi for one year worth $5.5 million AAV on day two of free agency.
He has struggled with injuries and missing time for… Other reasons the past few seasons.
Aside from that, in the time he has been cleared to play, he has been a top line level talent.
Over the past four seasons, Bertuzzi has played in 127 regular season games, scoring 43 goals and 56 assists for 99 points.
That is a 0.78 points-per-game (PPG) pace. Over a full 82 game schedule that would amount to 64 points.
If he can continue at this pace he would be the most productive non-core four player the Leafs have had in their top-six since Michael Bunting in 2021-22. While Bertuzzi could have an even higher ceiling than Bunting, he will almost certainly not be able to match the value Bunting was bringing for 900K.
Bunting was largely carried by his linemates as I spoke about in an article I wrote stating that the Leafs should not re-sign him.
Unlike Bunting, Bertuzzi has historically been a play-driver, though you can’t discount the fact that two years ago, Bunting put up one of the best 5v5 seasons of any player since advanced stats tracking was implemented.
Better late than never... Tyler Bertuzzi, signed 1x$5.5M by TOR, is a playmaking top six winger who creates lots of scoring chances. Plays with a bit of an edge but doesn't throw a lot of hits and has a good penalty differential. #LeafsForever pic.twitter.com/iAQzy80DH4
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) July 2, 2023
Aside from his advanced stats, his raw point totals largely on a basement-dwelling Red Wings squad indicate that he has more to give.
After his trade to the Boston Bruins last season, he produced 16 points in 21 games in the regular season and 10 points in seven playoff games.
It should be noted that the bulk of this production comes from playing on a line with Pavel Zacha and David Pastrnak. If given the opportunity to play with Matthews and Marner or Tavares and Nylander, he could easily surpass his pace over the past few seasons.
Prediction: 70 points
ST LOUIS, MO – NOVEMBER 21: John Klingberg #3 of the Anaheim Ducks (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)John Klingberg
John Klingberg
Likely the most head scratching of all the signings the Toronto Maple Leafs made this summer, was John Klingberg.
Treliving signed Klingberg to a one year contract carrying a $4.15 million AAV. If Jake McCabe is the Jake Muzzin replacement it seems that Klingberg is the Tyson Barrie replacement from a few seasons ago.
Despite the ire this move drew from fans and pundits alike, Klingberg should be able to give the Leafs backend an offensive push.
If he can’t, then he likely won’t provide much else. Looking at his advanced numbers and the eye test, Klingberg is an offensive defenceman who greatly lacks in the defensive department. And while players like Erik Karlsson can play this way and come out ahead, Klingberg lacks that talent.
Even if the days where he showed up on a Norris Trophy ballot are far gone, he can still score. Over the past three seasons with the Dallas Stars, Anaheim Ducks, and Minnesota Wild he has produced 116 points through 194 regular season games for a 0.6 PPG pace.
This doesn’t tell the whole story however, he has seen his production take a dip each of the last three seasons. He went from 0.68, down to 0.64, all the way down to 0.49 last season.
Given that alternate captain Morgan Rielly will likely continue to be the top unit powerplay quarterback, Klingberg likely slots in on the second unit. He most likely slots in on the Leafs third pairing as both Brodie and Liljegren are significantly better players who play the right side.
Klingberg will be 31 to start the regular season, which does not spark a lot of confidence with his declining offensive numbers and poor defensive numbers. If this signing is to not blow up in the Leafs face he will need to be more like his Stars version than the one we saw with the Ducks or Wild last season.
Prediction: 45 points
Max Domi
In what might very well have been a dream of every Toronto Maple Leafs fan since before he was drafted, Max Domi is finally a Leaf.
The Leafs signed him to yet another one year contract that carries a $3 million AAV. He is by far the biggest wildcard of the four big signings, which is why he was saved for last.
He has utility as a centre or winger having played extensively in both positions. It would be assumed that if he is playing centre it would be on the third line and as a winger he would most likely play on the second line.
However, he likely isn’t going to play ahead of Bertuzzi, and you would have to think the Leafs will give Matthew Knies every opportunity to play in the top six.
Whether he ends up on the second or third line, he should, at the very least, provide the Leafs with some depth scoring.
Prediction: 47 points (All contract information from CapFriendly and all stats and information Hockey Reference and Money Puck).
Domi has played for six NHL teams throughout his career with the Leafs being his seventh.
As you might expect for someone who has moved around as much as he has, his PPG pace has bounced up and down but over his eight year NHL career, he averages 0.64 PPG.
Next. Kyle Dubas Goes Down as the Leafs Best Ever GM. dark
Over an 82 game pace this would work out to 53 points which would make him a good middle-six and decent second line forward. As such, I will assume he’s playing third line duties.