Realistic Projections For 2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs Newcomers

Depending on your perspective, the Toronto Maple Leafs may have had a rough summer. 

Brad Treliving has made many changes since being named Toronto Maple Leafs general manager in June.

Some of these moves, like signing Tyler Bertuzzi, are extremely popular.  Others, like signing John Klingberg only to see his ex-teammate, who was way ahead of him on the depth-chart, sign for less money. 

Aside from front office and coaching personnel, he has had to make very important roster decisions in a short period of time.  The Leafs had ten expiring contracts and a reasonable amount of cap-space (Treliving was able to spend $18 million this summer), so their team is going to look quite different next season.

Unfortunately for Treliving, there are many more important decisions to come.

Toronto Maple Leafs superstars Auston Matthews  and William Nylander’s contracts are expiring in 2024. Then in 2025 Mitch Marner’s and John Tavares’ will expire. As well, there will surely be many more changes outside of the core four contracts.

For now, we will take a look at a few key additions that Treliving has made for the 2023-24 season and attempt to project their potential impacts.

Realistic Projections For 2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs Newcomers

Ryan Reaves

Ryan Reaves, who was signed for three seasons carrying a $1.35 million cap hit (AAV) was not signed for his offensive production.

By far the most controversial of Treliving’s signings, Reaves is not known for his offense or his defense, although, he matched a career second best of 15 points last season.

Speaking of last season, he had seven fights which is the highest single season total he has reached since 2014-15.

Over the past five seasons he has engaged in 17 total brawls.

On the higher end, I would assume he would match last season’s total. Likely, he comes in at around three given that was how much he fought in four of the past six seasons.

In terms of his limited offensive potential, his career high is 20 points and as I mentioned above, he has hit 15 twice. The likelihood that he eclipses 15 at 36 years of age is quite low.

While on the topic of box score stats, his penalty minutes are a lot lower than you would expect for his reputation. He has not reached 100 penalty minutes (PIM) since 2016-17 and he has not surpassed 50 since 2018-19.

Prediction: 12 points and 45 PIM with four fights

ST LOUIS, MO – NOVEMBER 21: John Klingberg #3 of the Anaheim Ducks  (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)John Klingberg

John Klingberg

Likely the most head scratching of all the signings the Toronto Maple Leafs made this summer, was John Klingberg.

Treliving signed Klingberg to a one year contract carrying a $4.15 million AAV. If Jake McCabe is the Jake Muzzin replacement it seems that Klingberg is the Tyson Barrie replacement from a few seasons ago.

Despite the ire this move drew from fans and pundits alike, Klingberg should be able to give the Leafs backend an offensive push.

If he can’t, then he likely won’t provide much else. Looking at his advanced numbers and the eye test, Klingberg is an offensive defenceman who greatly lacks in the defensive department.  And while players like Erik Karlsson can play this way and come out ahead, Klingberg lacks that talent.

Even if the days where he showed up on a Norris Trophy ballot are far gone, he can still score. Over the past three seasons with the Dallas Stars, Anaheim Ducks, and Minnesota Wild he has produced 116 points through 194 regular season games for a 0.6 PPG pace.

This doesn’t tell the whole story however, he has seen his production take a dip each of the last three seasons. He went from 0.68, down to 0.64, all the way down to 0.49 last season.

Given that alternate captain Morgan Rielly will likely continue to be the top unit powerplay quarterback, Klingberg likely slots in on the second unit.  He most likely slots in on the Leafs third pairing as both Brodie and Liljegren are significantly better players who play the right side.

Klingberg will be 31 to start the regular season, which does not spark a lot of confidence with his declining offensive numbers and poor defensive numbers. If this signing is to not blow up in the Leafs face he will need to be more like his Stars version than the one we saw with the Ducks or Wild last season.

Prediction: 45 points

Max Domi

In what might very well have been a dream of every Toronto Maple Leafs fan since before he was drafted, Max Domi is finally a Leaf.

The Leafs signed him to yet another one year contract that carries a $3 million AAV. He is by far the biggest wildcard of the four big signings, which is why he was saved for last.

He has utility as a centre or winger having played extensively in both positions. It would be assumed that if he is playing centre it would be on the third line and as a winger he would most likely play on the second line.

However, he likely isn’t going to play ahead of Bertuzzi, and you would have to think the Leafs will give Matthew Knies every opportunity to play in the top six.

Whether he ends up on the second or third line, he should, at the very least, provide the Leafs with some depth scoring.

Prediction: 47 points (All contract information from CapFriendly and all stats and information Hockey Reference and Money Puck).

Domi has played for six NHL teams throughout his career with the Leafs being his seventh.

As you might expect for someone who has moved around as much as he has, his PPG pace has bounced up and down but over his eight year NHL career, he averages 0.64 PPG.

Over an 82 game pace this would work out to 53 points which would make him a good middle-six and decent second line forward. As such, I will assume he’s playing third line duties.