Toronto Maple Leafs Lineup Projections for 2023-24

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The Toronto Maple Leafs were over $12 million dollars beyond the NHL’s salary cap limit before using the LTIR.

After the Toronto Maple Leafs announced that goaltender Matt Murray is out indefinitely and would be placed on long-term injured reserve (LTIR) earlier this week, the roster picture became much more clear.

Murray, who likely won’t play this season, will be joining Jake Muzzin on the LTIR and the team will still need to clear $2 million in cap space.

As it currently stands, the Leafs could be cap compliant come opening day by running a 20-man roster.

Clearly that isn’t good – you don’t want to have to move players into the minors and play shorthanded to start the season. Ideally teams should have spent as close to the cap as possible, but leave some space for roster flexibility later in the seasons.

Currently, there are many different combinations that could be made, like running with 12 forwards and six defencemen or 11 forwards and seven defencemen. Inside of those arrangements, there are many different players that can occupy those spots.

This is especially true of the Leafs bottom-six which saw much turnover this off-season. This could open spots up for young players like Matthew Knies and Nick Robertson (who are players the team should be counting on anyways) as well as other young Toronto Marlies forwards who are itching for a crack at a regular spot in the NHL.

So, let’s take a look at some of the different arrangements and line combinations that can be made within the Leafs cap constraints.

Auston Matthews #34 of the Toronto Maple Leafs . (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images) /

Toronto Maple Leafs Lineup Projections for 2023-24

Forwards

The top-six is mostly already set in stone with the duos of Auston Matthews/Mitch Marner and John Tavares/William Nylander occupying four of six spots.

After that there are a few players that we know could fill the remaining two spots like Calle Jarnkrok and Matthew Knies. The newly signed Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi could be good fits on those lines too.

On the other hand, Domi has the ability to play centre, I would assume he will mostly slot in as the third line centre with the ability to move up the lineup if need be. Tyler Bertuzzi on the other hand, is a proven top-six player and at $5.5 million, his price tag likely makes him a shoe-in for one of those two spots. Given all of these factors, here is how I see the top-six.

Bertuzzi-Matthews-Marner

Knies-Tavares-Nylander

This makes the top two lines have similar construction with a nice distribution of grit and elite-level skill. Bertuzzi and Knies can play a hard-nosed forechecker role. Tavares and Matthews can be primary shooters while Marner and Nylander are premier playmakers.

In the bottom-six it is dependent on whether the Leafs construct their roster with a 12-6 or 11-7 combination. However, there are roughly 10 players who can fill the remaining five or six spots. Aside from the aforementioned Domi and Jarnkrok there are: Sam Lafferty, David Kampf, Ryan Reaves, Bobby McMann, Alex Steeves, Nick Robertson, Dylan Gambrell, and Pontus Holmberg. To varying degrees, all of these players have a shot at making the opening night lineup.

The most likely players are: Lafferty, Jarnkrok, Domi, Kampf, and likely Reaves. If the Leafs choose to go 11-7, these are the remaining five players I would assume that they go with. A possible composition of them is

Jarnkrok-Domi-Lafferty

(Blank)-Kampf-Reaves

It is tough to speculate beyond this point but if they go 12-6, I would assume Holmberg occupies a spot on the fourth line.

As well, there is a possibility that the Leafs would prefer Holmberg or Lafferty play fourth line centre with Kampf playing third line centre and Domi shifting to the wing.

As I said, at this point it’s tough to really speculate but I also wouldn’t be surprised if Robertson makes the team and I would assume he would take a spot on the third line over Lafferty. His shooting ability could be an asset for secondary scoring and in tandem of Domi’s playmaking ability, it could be a lethal weapon.

Morgan Rielly #44 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates with the puck against the Florida Panthers . (Photo by Joel Auerbach/Getty Images) /

Defence/Goaltending

The blueline and crease is a much less exciting exercise but there are still some interesting wrinkles.

If the Leafs opt to go with an 11-7 format, the defenders would likely be: Morgan Rielly, T.J. Brodie, Jake McCabe, John Klingberg, Mark Giordano, Timothy Liljegren, and Connor Timmins.

If they opt to go 12-6, the player who almost undoubtedly gets the axe is Timmins. Luckily, although he has a cap hit over $1 million, the entirety can be buried as it is only $1.1 million.

There is also the added risk of losing him for nothing as he will have to clear the waiver wire. In terms of asset management this move wouldn’t be the best but it might be a necessary evil.

He found success with the Leafs after he was acquired last season but at this point he is still the seventh best defender on the team. Also, with the Leafs cap situation, these are the tough decisions that need to be made as a consequence.

However if the Leafs decide that they cannot risk losing Timmins, let’s look at the blueline with an 11-7 composition.

Rielly and Brodie will most likely be the top-pair with McCabe and either Liljegren or Klingberg being the second duo.

After that, it is likely Giordano and Liljegren/Klingberg with Timmins being the substitute throughout the lineup. There could be adjustments and some variance but as of now, given the historical lineup, this seems like the likeliest makeup.

Between the pipes, there is even less uncertainty. The tandem will be Ilya Samsonov and Joseph Woll barring a natural disaster occurring. However, the prospect of Matt Murray getting healthy again does make things interesting. It would very much put the Leafs in a tight bind as they would far exceed the $83.5 million salary cap and Jake Muzzin’s LTIR relief would not be able to help.

At this point, there is no clear timeline given for Murray’s injury as he is currently listed as “indefinite”. This could mean six months, weeks, years, who knows. So, it is most likely that he will be out for the entirety of the Toronto Maple Leafs 2023-24 season. (All contract information from CapFriendly).

Next. Top 5 Marlies to Keep Your Eye On. dark

Overall, there is a lot of variance with the forward group and much less for the defence and in net. Which, as things go, having certainty in net and on the backend is usually a good thing.

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