Toronto Maple Leafs: Ilya Samsonov Arbitration Comparables

The Toronto Maple Leafs are locked in with Ilya Samsonov on a one-year contract worth $3.55 Million awarded by an Arbitrator on Sunday afternoon.

The Hockey News writer David Alter disclosed on Monday who it was believed that the Toronto Maple Leafs, as well as Ilya Samsonov’s camp used as comparable goalies for the hearing.

Alter believed that Samsonov compared himself to Dallas Stars goalie Jake Oettinger ($4M) and Nashville Predator Juuse Saros($5M).

The Maple Leafs used Alexander Georgiev ($3.4M) from the Colorado Avalanche and Samsonov’s ex teammate Vítek Vaněček ($3.4M). (credit: Capfriendly.com)

When looking over all the comparable goalies, there are valid points to be used for and against each of them.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Ilya Samsonov Arbitration Comparables

Each of the goalies were signed as restricted free agents and other than Jake Oettinger who was 23-years old at the time of his signing were all 26-years old.

When comparing their career numbers there was more of a track record of Ilya Samsonov as he had more than twice the games as Vaněček and Oettinger, while having a few more contests than Georgiev and Saros.

One could argue that Samsonov was more of a veteran and should get more money, however on the other side of things you could say you now know what he is as a goalie and has less upside (I disagree).

While having the most games played, the Maple Leafs goalie also had the weakest career numbers of all four in regards to Save Percentage and Goals Against Average (ref: hockey-reference.com).

Career Save Percentage at time of contract
.920 – Juuse Saros
.913 – Jake Oettinger
.908 – Alexander Georgiev
.908 – Vítek Vaněček
.902 – Ilya Samsonov

Career Goals Against Average at time of contract
2.46 – Jake Oettinger
2.50 – Juuse Saros
2.68 – Vítek Vaněček
2.81 – Ilya Samsonov
2.94 – Alexander Georgiev

Samsonov Had a Comparable Season to Saros

Where Samsonov likely tried to make his case for the $4.9 Million request was that the season headed into his arbitration he was most similar to Saros, which is a valid point.

Last season, Samsonov posted a record of 27-10-5 with a 2.33 GAA and .919 Save Percentage.  The only goalie of the group with a lower GAA and higher save percentage was Saros who had a 2.28 GAA and .927 save percentage.

Even the two comparable goalies the Maple Leafs used had numbers drastically worse than Samsonov.

2022-23 Save Percentage
.927 – Juuse Saros
.919 – Ilya Samsonov
.914 – Jake Oettinger
.908 – Vítek Vaněček
.898 – Alexander Georgiev

2022-23 Goals Against Average
2.28 – Juuse Saros
2.33 – Ilya Samsonov
2.53 – Jake Oettinger
2.67 – Vítek Vaněček
2.92 – Alexander Georgiev

The Arbitrator Decision
As many know now, the arbitrator landed on a $3.55 Million contract, which carried a salary cap hit of 4.3%, which was right in around where I thought it should be when I wrote about it last week.

While Samsonov’s numbers from last season are comparable to Saros and Oettinger, both those players signed multi-year deals and had more of a track record.  The goalies that the Toronto Maple Leafs compared him to had better numbers over the long term and also signed for multiple years.

Last seasons success likely got Samsonov a little bit extra money over Vaněček and Georgiev, but signing a one-year deal cost him a little bit more money right now, however he may be able to make more in the long term.

The contract looks very fair for both sides which could set both the organization and goalie up for an extension in the new year.