3 Trades That Could Land the Toronto Maple Leafs Erik Karlsson

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Erik Karlsson – Trade 1

According to Cap Friendly, Karlsson is earning big money in San Jose.

His current annual average salary (AAV) is $11.5M. His contract runs until the completion of the 2026-27 season, when he will be 37 years old.

This is important information, considering that the Toronto Maple Leafs have currently exceeded the salary cap.

They are already over the cap by close to $9M ($8,831,450). When including Jake Muzzin’s LTIR savings, it reduces the Leafs excess being $3,206,450 over the cap.

In short, for Toronto to take on Karlsson’s salary, they will also need to shed salary on their end. This points to a deal involving a highly paid player. (*Everyone slowly turns to look at Nylander.)

With Nylander having not yet signed an extension with the Leafs, he becomes the most obvious person to move. He will be the centerpiece of the package sent to the Sharks.

This is the full trade:

Toronto Maple Leafs receive: Erik Karlsson

San Jose Sharks receive: William Nylander, Matt Murray, forward prospect Ryan Tverberg, defense prospect Mikko Kokkonen, a 2024 conditional first round draft pick (top 10 protected), and a 2026 third round draft pick.

The Maple Leafs in this deal would dump Murray, which is an additional win for them because they get out from his $4.6875M cap hit. It’s also why the Leafs would need to sweeten this deal with a first round pick and a pair of prospects.

If there was more certainty and term on Nylander’s contract, the Sharks could be swayed to take less in the agreement. However, the way it stands now, San Jose isn’t going to move Karlsson for Nylander alone.

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Erik Karlsson – Trade 2

There has been talk about dangling rookie Matthew Knies for a trade.

Mike Grier, the general manager of the Sharks would love to get his hands on Knies.

If there was a one-to-one deal with the possibility of acquiring Knies, Grier would be all over it. The Leafs on the other hand wouldn’t be as interested in giving up their top prospect.

Additionally, for all those wondering about the possibility of using Knies as trade bait, there’s a big reason (apart from his talent and on-ice value) why he isn’t going to be traded, his contract.

Karlsson takes up a lot of cap space, while Knies makes just $925,000. To get the big defenseman, the Leafs would still need to shed money, which means trading away a highly paid player anyway.

Once again, the most obvious player to include in an exchange would be Nylander. Since we know that he alone isn’t going to move the needle enough to make Grier sign off on the trade, he’ll be sent along to San Jose with a teammate.

Toronto Maple Leafs receive: Erik Karlsson

San Jose Sharks receive: William Nylander and TJ Brodie

The right question to ask is, “why is Nylander included here again?” The answer is simple. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and John Tavares can’t be traded without their consent. Each of the three of them hold no-movement clauses in their contracts. If they don’t want to play for the Sharks they won’t.

Nylander’s contract only has a modified no-trade clause. That means, he’s submitted a list of ten teams where the Leafs cannot trade him without his approval. If the Sharks aren’t on Nylander’s list, Treliving can ship him there without even speaking to Nylander first.

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Erik Karlsson – Trade 3

At this point, it’s very clear that I think Nylander is the most likely Maple Leafs player to be traded for Karlsson, but for this trade, we will leave Nylander alone.

For this one, we will assume that Marner is willing to waive his no-trade clause. That will land the winger in San Jose.

This is a trade that both clubs could agree making player-for-player. There are risks for both franchises in such an exchange. The biggest of which is the possibility of Marner walking away from the Sharks once his deal expires at the end of next season.

If that were to happen, Marner would still have played two seasons in San Jose. That isn’t considered a short term anymore.

Two years is more than enough time for the Markham, Ontario native to enjoy playing in California and choose to remain with the Sharks.

So, why would Marner waive his no-trade to go to San Jose? If a trade were to happen, there’s a great possibility that once Marner’s current contract comes to an end, he makes more money on the extension with the Sharks than with the Maple Leafs.

This can happen because with Karlsson off the books, Tomas Hertl becomes the Sharks highest paid played, carrying an AAV of $8.1375M. This gives San Jose far more cap space than Toronto will have once Marner’s contract expires.

While the Leafs would prefer to keep both Nylander and Marner and add still add Karlsson, that’s just not going to work. To see the three-time James Norris Memorial Trophy winner in Toronto, it will almost certainly mean Nylander is heading west to join his new team.