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Toronto Maple Leafs: Early Predictions for 2023-24 Regular Season

By Jeremy Ridgewell |
May 14, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly (44) celebrates with forward Mitch Marner (16) and forward Auston Matthews (34) after scoring a goal against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the second period of game seven of the first round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
May 14, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly (44) celebrates with forward Mitch Marner (16) and forward Auston Matthews (34) after scoring a goal against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the second period of game seven of the first round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
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The Toronto Maple Leafs have been quiet lately after making a splash during the first two days of free agency.

On the first day of free agency (July 1st), the Toronto Maple Leafs added Ryan Reaves. Then on July 2nd, they signed John Klingberg, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Max Domi. Since then, they made one minor signing in Dylan Gambrell but nothing since.

With the team being $8.8 million over the salary cap, there isn’t much for them to do until they find a way to unload some of that money. Leafs GM Brad Treliving is still busy behind the scenes as he negotiates new contracts for Ilya Samsonov, William Nylander, and Auston Matthews. He also has to decide what to do with goaltender Matt Murray. With Samsonov filing for salary arbitration, the Maple Leafs can use the NHL’s second buy-out window to buy-out Murray if they so choose.

Things may seem quiet from where the rest of us are sitting, but the Maple Leafs front office is probably anything but quiet. GM Treliving is here to shake things up and change the culture inside the Maple Leafs locker room. Hopefully, his new additions will help the Maple Leafs find more success come playoff time.

With not much happening right now, I thought it would be fun to go ahead and make some very early 2023-24 regular season predictions. I will be using the roster that is currently in place on July 12th, 2023.

(Photo by Joel Auerbach/Getty Images)
(Photo by Joel Auerbach/Getty Images) /

Early Predictions for Toronto Maple Leafs Defensemen

Morgan Rielly

Morgan Rielly finished the 2022-23 regular season with four goals and 37 assists for 41 points in 65 games. The season before that, he recorded ten goals and 58 assists for 68 points in 82 games. Rielly will be looking to stay healthy this season and get back to 60+ points. The Maple Leafs didn’t get enough scoring from their blueline last season, so Rielly needs to produce.
(Stats from hockey-reference.com)

2023-24 Prediction: 8 Goals, 54 Assists, 62 Points

John Klingberg

John Klingberg will help add scoring from the blue line. Last season, Klingberg registered ten goals, and 23 assists for 33 points in 67 games. Adding Klingberg gives the Maple Leafs a scoring threat from their defense other than Rielly. Having two scoring threats on defense that each play 20+ minutes a night is a luxury.

2023-24 Prediction: 10 Goals, 38 Assists, 48 Points

Jake McCabe

Jake McCabe will get plenty of playing time with the Maple Leafs. He can play the left or right side, which allows head coach Sheldon Keefe to use him anywhere in the top two defense pairs. Last season McCabe registered three goals and 22 assists for 25 points in 76 games.

2023-24 Prediction: 5 Goals, 28 Assists, 33 Points

Timothy Liljegren

Timothy Liljegren had a decent second full season with the Toronto Maple Leafs, but his production slipped slightly from the previous season. Last season he registered six goals and 12 assists for 18 points in 67 games. He recorded 23 points in 61 games during the 2021-22 season. Liljegren will have to work hard to earn a spot on one of the top two defense pairings.

2023-24 Prediction: 8 Goals, 20 Assists, 28 Points

Conor Timmins

Conor Timmins had trouble staying in the lineup last season. He still managed to produce 14 points in 25 games. If he can earn more playing time, his numbers should improve. The more production the Maple Leafs get from the defense, the better.

2023-24 Prediction: 5 Goals, 18 Assists, 23 Points

T. J. Brodie

T.J. Brodie is known more for his defense than his offense, but he can still produce. Brodie missed some time last season with an injury but still registered 14 points in 58 games. Hopefully, he can stay healthy this season.

2023-24 Prediction: 4 Goals, 16 Assists, 20 Points

Mark Giordano

Mark Giordano is not getting any younger, but the 39-year-old can still play. He continues to be a shot-blocking machine, with 147 blocked shots last season. However, with a decreased role and less playing time, I expect his point totals to drop this season. He registered four goals and 20 assists for 24 points in 78 games last season.

2023-24 Prediction: 3 Goals, 15 Assists, 18 Points

(Photo by Derek Cain/Getty Images)
(Photo by Derek Cain/Getty Images) /

Early Predictions for Toronto Maple Leafs Bottom-Six Forwards

Matthew Knies

Matthew Knies will have an opportunity to play his first complete season with the Maple Leafs. I can see him getting some playing time in the top six, but for now, I have him as the left-winger on the third line.

2023-24 Prediction: 14 Goals, 22 Assists, 36 Points

Calle Jarnkrok

Calle Jarnkrok had a good first season with the Toronto Maple Leafs. He registered 20 goals and 19 assists for 39 points in 73 games. Jarnkrok spent parts of last season playing in the Leafs’ top six, which helped his stats. I don’t expect him to spend as much time there this season.

2023-24 Prediction: 17 Goals, 15 Assists, 32 Points

David Kampf

David Kampf plays a defensive role but can produce offense. He will center one of the bottom two lines and get playing time as a penalty killer. His stats over his first two seasons with the Leafs are very similar, so I don’t expect much change. Kampf registered seven goals and 20 assists for 27 points in 82 games last season.

2023-24 Prediction: 9 Goals, 21 Assists, 30 Points

Sam Lafferty

Sam Lafferty did not play as big of a role with the Maple Leafs as he did with the Chicago Blackhawks last season, but he is a fast and productive player. He’ll likely start the season as the right-winger on the third line. Lafferty registered 12 goals and 15 assists for 27 points in 70 games last season. He only registered six points in 19 games with the Leafs.

2023-24 Prediction: 10 Goals, 16 Assists, 26 Points

Pontus Holmberg

Pontus Holmberg is looking to earn a permanent spot in the Maple Leafs lineup this season. He registered 13 points in 38 games last season. Depending on how head coach Sheldon Keefe sets up Knies and Max Domi, Holmberg could start the season as the fourth-line center.

2023-24 Prediction: 8 Goals, 13 Assists, 21 Points

Ryan Reaves

Anyone who knows Ryan Reaves knows not to expect much offense from the heavyweight. He is not here to produce much offense. Reaves knows his role, and he plays it well. He is here to hit, fight, and cause the other team to think twice before going after our star players.

2023-24 Prediction: 5 Goals, 12 Assists, 17 Points

Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports /

Early Predictions for Toronto Maple Leafs Top-Six Forwards

Mitch Marner

Mitch Marner has been one of the best point producers the Maple Leafs have ever had. He’s flirted with 100 points for the past two seasons. I think this is the year he finally hits the 100-point mark. He registered 30 goals and 69 assists for 99 points last season.

2023-24 Prediction: 32 Goals, 71 Assists, 103 Points

Auston Matthews

Auston Matthews played through a wrist injury during parts of last season and still scored 40 goals. When a 40-goal season is a down year, look out for him when he’s healthy. It might be a stretch for him to reach 60 goals in a season again, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he did. Last season he registered 40 goals and 45 assists for 85 points.

2023-24 Prediction: 52 Goals, 48 Assists, 100 Points

William Nylander

William Nylander had a career year in goals (40), assists (47), and points (87) last season. If he stays healthy, fans should expect similar numbers this season. Hopefully, he will have signed his contract extension and won’t have that as a distraction during the season.

2023-24 Prediction: 39 Goals, 48 Assists, 87 Points

John Tavares

Toronto Maple Leafs captain John Tavares has been close to a point-per-game player his entire time with the Leafs. Last season he registered 36 goals and 44 assists for 80 points in 80 games. Whether he plays center or wing on the second line, expect similar numbers this season.

2023-24 Prediction: 35 Goals, 42 Assists, 77 Points

Tyler Bertuzzi

Tyler Bertuzzi only managed to play 50 games last season but still registered 30 points. He has a legitimate chance to play with Matthews on the top line this season. If he stays healthy, his stats will be similar to the 62 points in 68 games he played during the 2021-22 season.

2023-24 Prediction: 28 Goals, 36 Assists, 64 Points

Max Domi

Max Domi will likely split time between being the left-winger on the second line and being the third-line center. Either way, his point production should be similar to last season. He registered 20 goals and 36 assists for 56 points in 80 games.

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2023-24 Prediction: 22 Goals 40 Assists, 62 Points

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