The Toronto Maple Leafs and Auston Matthews head into the most important contract talks in the history of the organization.
Recently on the 32 Thoughts Podcast, Elliotte Frideman stated that he believes Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Brad Treliving is pushing the two-time Rocket Richard winner to sign an eight-year extension.
Many fans would love it if Matthews to see the former first overall pick locked in as it would relieve a lot of anxiety with them worrying about him departing again.
The Toronto Maple Leafs best player has already creeped into the top 50 in all-time games played for the team and if he were to sign just a three-year deal, it would give fans at least four more years of the 60-goal scorer before worrying about another contract.
What many people are likely discussing is what is the better contract for the team and the player. If Matthews were take a long-term deal, he would likely be giving up a lot of money and it would make things tough on the short term for the organization.
Over the five seasons, the salary cap has gone up just $2 Million, however it is expected to go up close to $9 Million in just the next two years. If Matthews were to lock in at the 20% maximum, that would give him $16.7 Million. With the estimate of $92 Million cap for the 2025-26 season, that would be just an 18.1% cap hit and much less if it continues to jump over the next few seasons.
Matthews and the Maple Leafs need to weigh what is best for the player and the team.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Potential Auston Matthews Contracts
Option #1 – Eight Years, $16.7 Million ($133.6 Million)
If the team wants to sign Matthews to an eight-year deal, they will likely need to go the full 20% of the cap. If the cap goes up on average of $4 Million per season, by year four Matthews is earning just 16-17% of the cap. This contract for the team is banking on the league’s revenue continuing to increase. The risky part is that the Stanley Cup Finals had the lowest views per game since 2007 and might slow things.
The Leafs could try and get Matthews to give a bit of a discount similar to what Connor McDavid did when he signed his eight-year extension. Best case scenario, I don’t see Matthews signing an eight-year deal worth much less than $15 Million per year.
Even if they get Matthews to come down slightly on an eight-year deal, the 2024-25 season will be a challenging one for the team, but may be worth it for every season past that.
Option #2 – Five Years, $16 Million ($80 Million)
This contract I find the most unlikely scenario as when the deal is up Matthews would be into his early 30s and might be giving up money by becoming a free agent at that time.
However, if Matthews continues on a similar scoring path as Alex Ovechkin, he could be setting himself up for a huge final contract. By the time the deal is done, the cap could potentially be up around $110-$120 Million and another eight-year deal could be in play.
Option #3 – Two to Three years, $13.5 Million ($27-40.5 Million)
Many have speculated that Matthews is seeking a shorter-term deal and it is not a bad case for both the club and the player.
As stated, the cap is expected to skyrocket over the next few seasons and that is likely when most players will want to lock into their longer deals.
By taking the shorter deal, Matthews is setting himself up for a monster contract, however he would need to have give a little back to the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Matthews would give up a few million in annual average salary and sign for around $13.5 Million. This would help the team get through the final two-years of John Tavares contract, while Matthews would still become the highest paid player in the league. (cap info from capfriendly.com).
Matthews could potentially get become an unrestricted free agent at the age of 28, which if he takes a three-year deal would be one-year after Connor McDavid’s new contract. Between McDavid’s new deal and the cap going up, Matthews could potentially see an eight-year deal worth $20 Million per season.