Toronto Maple Leafs: Unrestricted Free-Agent Predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs UFAs: Michael Bunting

The Toronto Maple Leafs signed Michael Bunting to one of the best contracts two years ago when the Toronto native came home on a two-year deal that paid an average annual salary of $950,000. (all cap info capfriendly.com).

Over those two seasons, Bunting scored 23-goals in each year and recorded 112 points over 161 games.

By the midpoint this past season people predicted that Bunting would see a long-term deal in around $4.5-$5 Million.

However, not only did Bunting struggle in the second half of the season, he was almost invisible in the playoffs, which included a three-game suspension.

In his final 24 games of the regular season, the former Greyhound collected just four goals and nine points while averaging less than 15 minutes per game.

In the playoffs, the Toronto Maple Leafs were just 2-5 with him in the line-up while he collected just one goal.  In the final four games of the Panthers series, Bunting recorded only one assist.

Due to his lack of play during his final months in Toronto, Bunting likely gave up a couple years and several million on his big shot of cashing in playing with some of the leagues best players.

Prediction: 3 years, $3.5M AAV with the Pittsburgh Penguins

Alex Kerfoot

Likely the worst trade in the Kyle Dubas era will go down as the Nazem Kadri for Alex Kerfoot and Tyson Barrie trade.

Three days after the trade went down, Dubas signed Kerfoot to a four-year deal worth $14 Million ($3.5 Million AAV).

This was just one million less than what Kadri was earning and although Kadri had a history of getting emotional in the playoffs and getting suspended, he had top six talent and was just one year removed from back-to-back 32-goal seasons.

Kerfoot would average 10-goals a season with Toronto and collect more than 32-points just once while scoring only four goals in 30 playoff games even with consistently getting top six opportunities.

To be fair, their 5v5 were not drastically different, and Kerfoot provided much better defense, but it still isn’t enough to make up for what Kadri brought to the  team.

The Vancouver native does have the asset of being able to play effective bottom six role, but he won’t see a contract like what Dubas handed him four years ago.

Prediction: 2 years, $2M AAV with Vancouver Canucks

David Kämpf

One of the good value contracts that Kyle Dubas was able to get a player to sign was when he inked David Kämpf to a two-year deal at an annual average salary of $1.5 Million.

When he signed Kämpf he was coming of a 56-game season where he scored just one goal.  The Czech Republic born player found himself most often on the third line playing up the middle and killing penalties. (note all stats naturalstattrick.com).

He had a career high 11-goals and 26-points in his first season with the club, and then beat his points total with 27 this past year.

I believe the Toronto Maple Leafs are going to target Ryan O’Reilly in free agency, but if they strike out they will look to bring back Kämpf to fill the third line role until they can upgrade at next years deadline and push him back to the fourth line.

Prediction: 2 years, $1.75M AAV with Toronto Maple Leafs

Noel Acciari

Although the offence wasn’t there, Noel Acciari was a nice trade deadline addition as he brought a physical style to the team that was lacking.  The New York native finished tenth in the league in hits with 244 and was able to collect 14 goals on the season.

Ideally the Toronto Maple Leafs would be able to bring back Acciari to the club, but he is likely going to get overpaid by a team looking for more physicality on their roster.

Prediction: 1 year, $3.1M AAV with Carolina Hurricanes

Wayne Simmonds

It is hard to believe, but Wayne Simmonds has been part of the Toronto Maple Leafs now for three seasons.

While he would do anything for the team, he just doesn’t have the footspeed or the hands to be an NHL player anymore.  Simmonds dressed for just 18 games this season and was unable to score a goal while collecting two assists.  Many fans love his style of game and teammates appear to appreciate the leadership he brings.

Prediction: Retires and joins Maple Leafs in a coaching role

Ryan O’Reilly

The former Conn Smythe trophy winner brought what was expected of him in Toronto, though he could have scored more.

ROR showed true tenacity during the games he played and while at times some of the “Core Four” had down times, the hometown centermen never took his foot off the pedal.

With this upcoming free agent class very weak, ROR is likely one of the top players on the market and is going to get overpaid by someone.  If he would agree to a 3-4 year deal at around $4 Million per year with the Toronto  Maple Leafs they should sign him, the problem is a team is likely going to double that.

Prediction: 3 years, $7M AAV with New York Rangers

Zach Aston-Reese

For a guy that came into training camp on professional tryout contract (PTO), fans have to be happy with what ZAR brought.

He signed for just over 840K on a one-year deal and suited up for 77 regular season games.  For the first time in his career he recorded double digits in goals after finishing with ten while averaging just under 11-minutes of ice-time per night.  ZAR is easily replaceable, but he will receive offers from around the league for near league minimum.   When it comes to that type of salary, every 100K more he can get make, will be a big difference in his family’s lifestyle.  He will likely look for a million dollars somewhere.

Prediction: 1 year, $1.1M AAV with New York Islanders

Erik Gustafsson

The trade that brought Erik Gustafsson to the Toronto Maple Leafs was a confusing one as the team traded a younger version of himself in Rasmus Sandin to the Washington Capitals for Gustafsson and a first-round pick.

Gustafsson who was a pending free agent suited up for just 11 games split between the regular season and playoffs, but did record five points.  He is a powerplay specialist and recorded 42-points on the season despite averaging under 20-minutes a night over 70 games.

There isn’t room on the back-end in Toronto for what he brings and he will likely move on.  It feels like he could go back for a third stint in Chicago to help with the first pass breakouts to Connor Bedard.

Prediction: 1 year, $2M AAV with Chicago Blackhawks

Justin Holl

The contract and ice-time will finally be gone unless Sheldon Keefe somehow convinces Brad Treliving to bring back Justin Holl.  Holl would be a decent sixth or seventh defenseman on most teams; the problem was he was playing against the top competition on opposing teams and averaged well over 20-minutes a night over his last three seasons.  Had he not played the majority of his minutes with Auston Matthews and Jake Muzzin his stats would look horrific.

Holl is still just 31-years old and is a 6’3 right hand shot defenseman, which means some team will be willing to dole out the cash for him.  The question is, does a bidding war start for him and can he get an extra year and extra million on his annual average salary.

Prediction: 4 years, $3M AAV with Minnesota Wild

Luke Schenn

Despite the fact Schenn has only had a positive impact on his team statistically in a few of the seasons he’s played over his 15 year career, I think he may have been their best addition at the trade deadline.

While he was paired with Morgan Rielly 5v5, he did not play top four minutes as he averaged the fifth most minutes amongst the blueliners during the playoffs.  The best Rielly has ever looked was this past post-season and you have to give some credit to Schenn for those results.

Then again, you also have to give some credit to their other two most frequent linemates, Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews.

During the playoff run, Schenn played a calming physical role.  The former top draft pick is not a good puck mover; and while slow of foot, he is very defensively responsible.

There is already talk about Schenn returning to the team and while his salary won’t blow the budget, they could likely keep it under a million if the organization offers him a third year.  This will be Schenn’s fifth contract in the last six years, meaning he has been consistently looking for work.  By offering him a third year, you give him some guaranteed salary and if he drops off at the end of the deal the contract can be buried without penalty.

Prediction: 3 years, $950,000 with Toronto Maple Leafs