Should The Toronto Maple Leafs Re-sign Michael Bunting?

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There are many questions plaguing the Toronto Maple Leafs front-office. From player personnel to staff, many decisions must be made in the coming months.

At the forefront of player questions is Toronto Maple Leafs winger Michael Bunting and if he should be re-signed or not.

This will be a major decision to be made for newly appointed GM, Brad Treliving.

As a 27-year-old, Bunting will become an unrestricted free agent (UFA) on July 1st. This gives him the right to negotiate with any team in the league.

Typically, the UFA designation comes with a higher annual average value (AAV) on a player’s contract adding another ripple to this discussion.

Should the Toronto Maple Leafs re-sign Michael Bunting?

Originally signed by the Leafs in 2021, Bunting has played in 161 games and produced 112 points since. Of those 112 points, 97 come in at even strength. His career totals come in at 187 games played with 126 points.

He’s been a very productive player since joining the Leafs and as such, will likely fetch a premium on the open market.

In his time as a Leaf, he has primarily flanked the dynamic duo of stars Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, playing on their left-wing.

Using the capfriendly “contract comparables” tool, here are some of the closest comparables.

Feb 15, 2019; Buffalo, NY, USA; New York Rangers right wing Mats Zuccarello (36) Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports /

Mats Zuccarello, 2015

In 2015 at the age of 27, the New York Rangers signed Mats Zuccarello to a four-year contract worth $4.5 million per season.

At the time that accounted for 6.52% of the cap. His career up to that point was very similar to Bunting’s. Both players didn’t become regular NHLers until the age of 26 and both took off immediately.

In his first two full NHL seasons, Zuccarello produced 108 points in 155 games for a 0.70 PPG, the exact same as Bunting.

Conveniently, this is also around when Zuccarello signed his comparable deal. The only difference being his contract extension came mid-season on March 2nd, 2015. (cap info capfriendly.com).

Jonathan Marchessault, 2018

Just like Zuccarello and Bunting, Marchessault did not make the NHL full-time until he was 26 years of age.

Also like the other two, he broke out onto the scene in his first two NHL seasons before signing this comparable deal. In those two seasons, he played in 152 games, scoring 126 points for a 0.83 PPG.

However, due to his deal being signed in January of 2018, he had actually only played 110 games and produced 88 points for a 0.8 PPG.

The deal he signed was for six years at $5 million AAV. At the time, it worked out to 6.67% of the salary cap. (stats hockeydb.com).

Alex Iafallo, 2021

Iafallo is a different case from Bunting or the other two previously mentioned players. He went straight from the NCAA to the NHL on a full-time basis at the age of 23.

After the expiration of his two-year ELC, he signed a two-year bridge deal at $2.425 million per season. By the time he signed his current deal (four years and $4 million AAV 4.91% cap hit) he was 27 years old and had played 266 games and produced 126 points.

However, he really broke out offensively after his first season. Taking away that first season, in the time preceding his deal, he played in 191 games and scored 101 points.

This gives him a points per game of 0.53. Much lower than the previous two examples or Bunting himself. This to me, puts his deal at the floor of what Bunting could ask for on his next contract.

So, this puts the Michael Bunting contract likely between 4.9% and 6.7% of the salary cap. At an $83.5 million salary cap ceiling, that would give him an AAV of $4.091 million and $5.594 million.

One other thing to keep in mind with these deals is that they are all extensions and they all come mid-season. Given we are less than a month out from July 1st, it’s very possible that Bunting tests the open market. This could possibly inflate his contract due to a bidding war and the leverage of walking away.

RALEIGH, NC – MARCH 25: Michael Bunting #58 of the Toronto Maple Leafs looks on during the first period of the a game against the Carolina Hurricanes at PNC Arena on March 25, 2023 in Raleigh, North Carolina. Hurricanes defeat Leafs 5-3. (Photo by Jaylynn Nash/Getty Images) /

Since coming to Toronto, he has been seen as a product of playing with star linemates like Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander. This narrative seems to be mostly true, especially when looking at the underlying numbers.

According to NaturalStattrick.com, the duo of Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner performed better without Bunting on the ice.

This season. With Bunting, the pair has an xGF% (expected goals for percentage) of 58.4%. Without Bunting, they have an xGF% of 59.05%. The same happens when looking at shot chances, high danger chances, and goals.

The difference is even more stark when looking at William Nylander and John Tavares. With Bunting, they have a below average 47.98% xGF.

Without Bunting, they sit at 57.36% xGF. It’s even more alarming when look at the goal scoring. The trio has a 16.67% GF% together, when you subtract Bunting from the equation, it’s 48.57%.

This just simply shows how Bunting effects the stars but how is Bunting on his own? When he’s not playing with Marner or Matthews, his results are underwhelming.

He has an xGF% of 46.82% and a GF% of 44%. So, when star players play without him, they improve and when he doesn’t play with star players… He sinks.

It’s no surprise that a complimentary player isn’t elevating his fellow star line mates. It is supposed to he the other way around by default but when the difference is that they play better without him and he plays significantly worse without them, why would a team invest large amounts of the cap to him?

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Given that Bunting’s next contract likely comes north of $4 million when looking at comparable contracts, it doesn’t make sense to re-sign him. Even with the Toronto Maple Leafs having close to $15 million to spend this off-season. They would be better off spending it more wisely and taking a look at cheaper options to replace his role in the lineup.

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