Will the Toronto Maple Leafs Have to Do the Unthinkable?

As summer quickly approaches, newly hired Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Brad Treliving has to decide what to do about the Auston Matthews situation.

Matthews has one year left on his contract (with an $11.6M salary cap hit). Beginning July 1, he is eligible to sign an extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs, the same day his full no-movement clause comes into effect.

If Matthews is willing to sign an extension, Toronto will certainly accommodate him.  It would likely mean the richest contract in NHL history, but Matthews is only 25, and hopefully the salary cap will rise enough in the coming years to lessen the pain of an annual cap hit likely to approach $13M.

However, if Toronto is unable to come to terms with their superstar centreman, Treliving may have to change course and consider trading him while he is still able to do so.  And while the Toronto Maple Leafs have in recent years had an embarrassment of riches in the forward department, the blue line has been less than stellar.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Trading Auston Matthews

Morgan Rielly, who is under contract for another seven seasons, had a great playoff after struggling in the regular season.  Timothy Liljegren and Conor Timmins, both 24, could be longer term depth options but neither are likely to become a star.  Jake McCabe was a good addition this year, and is signed for two more seasons.

The rest of the current defence roster is either going to be let go (UFA’s Justin Holl and Erik Gustafsson), or stick around for one more year (TJ Brodie, Mark Giordano, possibly Luke Schenn).

Should the Toronto Maple Leafs shop Auston Matthews and see if they can land a stud defenceman in return?  There are several high end options out there, proven young players who do not currently have no-movement clauses in their contracts.

Starting at the top, how about Cale Makar, under contract for four more years at a cap hit of $9M? Charlie McAvoy, signed for seven more years at $9.5M? Adam Fox, six more years at $9.5M?  Mikhail Sergachev, eight more years at $8.5M? Miro Heiskanen, six more years at $8.45M? (all figures from capfriendly.com)

I’m not necessarily suggesting straight up one-for-one deals for any of these players, as additional players and/or draft picks would possibly be involved, particularly depending on whether Toronto’s trade partner would be able to get an agreement from Matthews to sign long term with them.

I’m also not trying to imply that teams would even consider trading their star defenders, even if the return would be one of the best players in recent NHL history.  The players listed are simply ones that CAN be currently traded due to lack of movement clauses in their contracts.

There are many different paths to winning a Stanley Cup, and the one followed by Kyle Dubas has yet to end in success.  Perhaps it’s time to change up the strategy.  Within two seasons, the lineup could be anchored by Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Morgan Rielly, defender X (from a Matthews trade), and forward X (signed with the cap savings from the expiry of John Tavares’ contract).  This would extend the Toronto Maple Leafs contender window by several more seasons.

The alternative is to do nothing, and watch as Matthews and Nylander play out their contracts and walk next summer. Yes, the team would then be free to use that cap space to sign free agent replacements.  Unfortunately, history shows that teams with unused cap space too often use it to overpay whichever mediocre players are currently on the market.

Making proactive moves now would be Toronto’s better option. But only if they absolutely are sure they cannot sign Auston Matthews.