What Should the Toronto Maple Leafs Do With Matt Murray?

Aside from Kyle Dubas and Sheldon Keefe’s jobs, arguably the biggest question mark heading into the Toronto Maple Leafs off-season is the status of Matt Murray.

After being acquired last summer, he looked to be turning a new Leaf (no pun intended) heading into the 2022-2023 season as the assumed starter for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Unfortunately, injuries and struggling play derailed his season and makes his contract into an albatross plaguing the Leafs books.

So, what can be done?

What should the Toronto Maple Leafs do about Matt Murray?

In 26 games, Murray posted a 14-8-2 with a .903% save percentage. Looking deeper, he had a 1.0 GSAx, ranking 30th amongst goalies who played more than 20 games according to moneypuck.com. He also had a 0.711% high danger save percentage, ranking 40th amongst the same group.

These aren’t great numbers but given there were only 62 goalies who played over 20 games this season, he sits around the middle of the pack. However, for a team with Stanley cup aspirations, it’s not enough. This much was clear given he lost the starter job to Ilya Samsonov throughout the season. As well, he lost the backup role in the playoffs to Joseph Woll. As a result, the Leafs should probably look to move on from him but there are a few options.

The first option would be for him to go on long-term injured reserve (LTIR) like Jake Muzzin. But, given he was seemingly healthy and available for the playoffs as a third-string goalie, this likely isn’t possible. Unless the reason he was the third-string was because he wasn’t “100%”. It’s hard to say and is the least likely option in my opinion.

Conversely, the most likely option for Matt Murray is to be traded. The Leafs have pulled off a similar move in recent memory, trading Petr Mrázek at last year’s draft. This required Dubas to send Mrázek with the 25th overall pick to the Chicago Blackhawks for the 38th overall pick.

However, there are a few issues with this option. Murray has a high cap hit of roughly $4.69 million with a high salary of $6 million even after 25% retention by the Ottawa Senators. This means only teams willing to take on that cap hit and salary will be available. Also, given his deal will be a cap dump, there are already only a few teams that would be willing to take it on. This means, the Leafs would have to find another team that is tanking or that needs to hit the cap floor to acquire Murray.

After looking at cap friendly, a team that could fit this criteria is the San Jose Sharks. They’re a rebuilding team with nearly $15 million in projected cap space. They also have a vacancy in net with James Reimer potentially walking and no major prospect coming up the pipeline. If the Leafs dangle the 28th overall pick, they might be able to recreate some form of the Petr Mrázek trade. Maybe with another sweetener given the much smaller difference in the Leafs first and San Jose’s next pick at 36th overall.

Another option would be for the Leafs to keep him and play him. For the aforementioned reasons, I think this is very unlikely unless they cannot find a willing trade partner. If they cannot, it would cause major cap constrictions as the Leafs project to have under $15 million in cap space. This is before signing Ilya Samsonov and with multiple roster spots unoccupied. Although not impossible, this is unlikely and the worst option in my own opinion.

There are many moving parts to the Matt Murray conundrum this off-season. I think the  Leafs should look to move him but it will be an interesting storyline to watch play out regardless of the outcome over the coming months.