Toronto Maple Leafs Another Year Closer to the Stanley Cup

The Toronto Maple Leafs will win the Stanley Cup again.  Nobody knows when it will happen, but this year’s edition made progress towards that ultimate goal.

The emotions of seeing the team flame out once again are starting to fade, allowing some rational thoughts to take their place.  The question for the Toronto Maple Leafs is “what now?”

Starting from the top, does Brendan Shanahan stay?  Of course, none of us are privy to the conversations between Shanny and the big suits, or what his vision may be, and how this season’s results may alter that vision.  I will say two things in his favour.

First, he has presided over a first class organization.  No expense has been spared in training, medical, scouting, coaching, facilitiies, etc.  Players want to play here.  No moronic draft choices or scandals (hello Boston, Montreal, Chicago).  The Toronto Maple Leafs ooze respect.

Second, continuity is a good thing.  Management shouldn’t be changed unless the current version is a disaster or there is a clearly better option out there.  I don’t feel that’s the case in Toronto.

Toronto Maple Leafs Off-se

Next, does Kyle Dubas stay?  The key to being a good GM is the ability to see what isn’t working and make changes in response.  Dubas added grit and experience to last year’s squad, and while the end result was not good enough, it was a step in the right direction.  If he can articulate the logical next steps and if he wants to stay, sign the man up.

Coaching staff?  I’m a little torn on this one.  I think Sheldon Keefe is a good coach.  I don’t know if the players back him or not.  If they do, bring him back.  If we have a Darryl Sutter or John Tortorella situation, where key players are at odds with the coach, then Keefe has to go.  Personally, I think having the ideal mix of players will have a much bigger impact than finding the “right” coach.

Now to the players.  First order of business is Auston Matthews.  If he wants to stay, the Toronto Maple Leafs have to sign him long term now.  You simply cannot give up on a talent like Matthews.  If he is set on moving to an American team, he has to be traded before July 1, when his no-trade clause kicks in.

Without getting into an in-depth analysis, here are a couple of possibilities.  If Matthews stays, trade Mitch Marner now.  I love Marner’s skill, and he is probably the most fun Maple Leaf to watch, but his skill set may not be an ideal match for a tight-checking playoff atmosphere.  He will also bring the biggest return for any player not named Matthews.

If Matthews is traded, extend Marner, with a plan to build around him going forward.

Note that in either case, one of the “big two” are gone.  Something significant needs to change with this roster.

William Nylander should be extended long term now.  He is finally “getting it”, and has been Toronto’s most effective playoff forward.  Nothing can be done about John Tavares.  He is still a solid player, although no longer worth his current salary cap hit.  He will still contribute over the final two years of his contract.

What would Toronto want in exchange for Matthews or Marner?  It’s difficult to know which teams might be willing to trade stars in their prime.  Maybe some out-of-the-box thinking is required here.

It may be premature and pure speculation, but I keep thinking about Connor McDavid’s contract, which expires in three more years (per capfriendly.com).  Does he want to come home to Toronto at age 29, in his prime?

Perhaps the Leafs should acquire some prime draft picks and/or young talent that can be developed in the next three years, remove themselves from salary cap hell by divesting themselves of Matthews’ or Marner’s salaries, and take a run at signing McDavid in three years.

In the mean time, the team will remain very competitive over the next few years with a Woll/Samsonov tandem in net (goodbye Matt Murray, we hardly even knew ye’);  a blueline minus Justin Holl and Mark Giordano (his age showed in these playoffs); and a forward group minus one superstar, plus one Matthew Knies and enough money to sign some skilled grit.

Maybe a team that is not necessarily better on paper, but simply different, will find more playoff success.  If not, a team with McDavid, Matthews/Marner, Nylander, Knies, Reilly, Woll, etc. all in their prime sounds like something worth looking forward to.

I can already smell the optimism in the air.  Bring on the 2023-2024 season!