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Lightning vs. Maple Leafs prediction and odds for NHL playoffs Game 5

By Iain MacMillan

Apr 24, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) is congratulated by goaltender Ilya Samsonov (35) after he scored against the Tampa Bay Lightning during the third period of game four of the first round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 24, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) is congratulated by goaltender Ilya Samsonov (35) after he scored against the Tampa Bay Lightning during the third period of game four of the first round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Toronto Maple Leafs are one win away from clinching their first playoff series since 2004.

But, us Leafs fans are only cautiously optimistic after blowing this exact lead against the Montreal Canadiens just two short years ago.

Game 5 is back in Toronto tonight, but the Leafs will need to play better than they did the past two games if they want to avoid going back to Tampa Bay for Game 6.

Let’s dive into the odds for the game and then I’ll give you my best bet.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs odds, puck line, and total

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs prediction and pick

I don’t think any fellow Maple Leafs fan will blame me for not backing them to win at -150 tonight. We’ve been hurt too many times in the past to trust them with not only my emotions, but my money as well.

So, instead I’m going to bet on the total and I think there’s some significant value on the UNDER.

Despite this being a high-scoring series so far, that has been due to poor goaltending and/or sharp shooting. In terms of advanced analytics, both teams actually haven’t performed all that well offensively.

For example, when it comes to 5-on-5 play the Leafs have an expected goals per 60 minutes of 2.37. The Lightning are right behind them coming in at 2.27. Those two marks rank 11th and 12th out of the 16 playoff teams this round.

That means, we may be in store for a defensive battle, the first of the series to date.

I’ll be rooting for the Leafs to close out the series while betting on the UNDER 6.5 at -105 odds.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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