Maple Leafs vs. Lightning prediction and odds for NHL playoffs Game 4

Apr 22, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Toronto Maple Leafs center David Kampf (64) skates with the puck as Tampa Bay Lightning left wing Nicholas Paul (20) defends during overtime in game three of the first round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 22, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Toronto Maple Leafs center David Kampf (64) skates with the puck as Tampa Bay Lightning left wing Nicholas Paul (20) defends during overtime in game three of the first round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /
facebooktwitterreddit

The Toronto Maple Leafs escaped with a win in Game 3 of their first round playoff series against the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The Lightning largely outplayed the Maple Leafs, but Ilya Samsonov stood strong in net and Toronto took advantage of its opportunities. Sometimes, the sign of a championship team is being able to win games in which you get outplayed.

Is that a good sign for the Maple Leafs moving forward?

They play a pivotal Game 4 in Tampa Bay on Monday night and if they win, they get to take a 3-1 series lead back to Toronto for Game 5.

Let’s dive into the odds for tonight’s game and then I’ll tell you why we should trust the Leafs tonight.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning odds, puck line, and total

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning prediction and pick

Sure, the Maple Leafs got outplayed despite winning Game 3, but they were on the right side of the analytics in the first two games, even in the Game 1 blowout.

During 5-on-5 play, the Maple Leafs have an expected goals percentage of 2.41 per 60 minutes compared to the Lightning at 2.36. The Leafs have also managed 4.11 more high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play through the first three games.

The Maple Leafs main concern is staying out of the box as the Lightning have had the advantage during special teams play so far this series.

But, what that being said, it’s clear this Lightning team isn’t the same team that won three-straight Eastern Conference Finals. Andrei Vasilevskiy has struggled in net for them, sporting a save percentage of 85.26%, and their lack of depth has hurt them against the Maple Leafs third line.

I’m willing to bet on the Leafs to take a 3-1 series lead tonight.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.