Maple Leafs vs. Lightning prediction and odds for NHL playoffs Game 3

Apr 20, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs center Zach Aston-Reese (12) celebrates at the bench after scoring a goal against the Tampa Bay Lightning during the second period in game two of the first round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 20, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs center Zach Aston-Reese (12) celebrates at the bench after scoring a goal against the Tampa Bay Lightning during the second period in game two of the first round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Toronto Maple Leafs will head to Tampa Bay to take on the Lightning in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference playoff series.

The first two games were blowouts, each team being on the right side of it once. The Lightning dominated Game 1, winning by a final score of 7-3. The Maple Leafs followed it up with a 7-2 victory of their own in Game 2.

Now, the series heads to Tampa Bay for a pivotal Game 3.

Let’s dive into the odds for the game and then I’ll give you my best bet.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning odds, puck line, and total

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning prediction and pick

Despite the lopsided result in Game 1, the Toronto Maple Leafs have dominated play when it’s been 5-on-5 throughout the series.

In fact, they lead the playoffs so far in 5-on-5 expected goals percentage at 61.84%.

That alone makes them a strong be in Game 3 against the Lightning.

The key for the Maple Leafs will be to stay out of the penalty box. The Lightning have already scored four powerplay goals in the series, and their special teams will give them an advantage if the Leafs don’t play disciplined hockey.

With that being said, the 5-on-5 numbers are too lopsided to not take a shot on the Leafs as slight favorites to take the 2-1 series lead.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.