Lightning vs. Maple Leafs prediction and odds for Game 2 of NHL playoffs

Apr 18, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Ian Cole (28) goes to check Toronto Maple Leafs forward Mitchell Marner (16) during the first period of game one of the first round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 18, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Ian Cole (28) goes to check Toronto Maple Leafs forward Mitchell Marner (16) during the first period of game one of the first round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Maple Leafs haven’t won a playoff series since 2004 and have lost seven-straight first round series.

The Leafs were heavy favorites to finally get that monkey off their back against the Tampa Bay Lightning, but then disaster struck in Game 1. They fell behind 3-0 in the first period and could never recover, eventually losing by a final score of 7-3.

So, can the Leafs bounce back in Game 2 and even the series? If they don’t, they’re going to be going to Tampa Bay for the next two games down 0-2 in the series.

Let’s take a look at the odds for Thursday night’s game.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs odds, puck line, and total

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs prediction and pick

Game 1 may have been a disgrace, but there are positives to take away from the loss.

For example, the Maple Leafs largely outplayed the Lightning in 5-on-5 play. In “expected goals,” the Maple Leafs outplayed the Lightning by a total of 2.29-1.51.

They also had plenty more high-danger scoring chances than Tampa Bay. The Maple Leafs totaled 15 high-danger scoring chances during 5-on-5 play while the Lightning recorded only six.

The trouble comes with special teams. The Maple Leafs were strong in this area throughout the regular season, but they were a disaster in Game 1. The Lightning had a man advantage for a total of 10:17 minutes of ice time, while scoring four powerplay goals.

If the Leafs can stay out of the penalty box, or at the very least tighten up the penalty kill, they’ll be able to even up the series on Thursday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.