Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning: Game 1 Preview

The Toronto Maple Leafs will look for redemption from last season, as they’ll once again face the Tampa Bay Lightning at home, with Game 1 starting tonight.

This is the most exciting time of the year to be a Toronto Maple Leafs fan, but it’s also the scariest. For the past 50 weeks, we’ve waited for this moment, hoping that there will be a different result for the first time in 19 years.

It’s never easy for this team, as they’ll have to beat a team who’s been to three straight Stanley Cup Finals and have won two of them. Although Toronto was the better team in the regular season, while also winning two of three match-ups against the Lightning, it won’t be an easy series.

Toronto finished the season with 111 points (50-21-11 record) while Tampa Bay finished with 98 points (46-30-6 record). By finishing with more points than the Lightning, the Leafs will once again have home-ice advantage, which they hope is actually an advantage this year.

When these teams faced off against each other last year, we all thought the drought was over. Toronto secured a 3-2 series lead and had home-ice advantage for Game 7, which was something they’d hadn’t really had in their other playoff series’.

They technically had it against Montreal in 2021, but there were only 500 people allowed in the building that night, so it wasn’t much of an advantage.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay: Game 1 Preview

Last year’s series was as even as it gets. It went to Game 7 and when everything was finished, the Leafs actually outscored the Lightning 24-23 in those seven games, despite losing the series.

Game 1 was the biggest surprise of them all, as Toronto set the tone with a 5-0 victory at home. Things could have gone sideways after Kyle Clifford received a five-minute major, but the team denied the Lightning and changed the momentum of the game, leading to a huge victory.

So, what should we expect from Game 1 this year?

The Lightning are led at forward by Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos and are arguably even better at goal and defense with Victor Hedman and Andrei Vasilevskiy.

Both Hedman and Vasilevskiy are former Conn Smythe winners, so it’s always a tall-task to beat them in a seven-game series, as the Lightning are 11-1 in their last 12 series’.

The Lightning have the advantage by having the best goaltender and defenseman in the series, but Toronto should be able to match the Lightning as a team. The Leafs added Ryan O’Reilly at the NHL Trade Deadline for this moment, so expect him to have a big game and series, while Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares and William Nylander should all carry the load offensively and make Vasilevskiy work for every save.

This series will come down to special teams, as the Leafs and Lightning finished second and third in the league in power-play percentage and near the middle of the pack in penalty-kill percentage.

Essentially, whichever team stays out of the penalty-box the most will have the best advantage to win, so if the Leafs want to win Game 1, they’ll have to stay disciplined. They can’t expect to go 8-for-8 on the penalty-kill like they did the last time they faced Tampa Bay on April 11.

It’s another fresh start for the Toronto Maple Leafs, so let’s hope this team can win Game 1 at home and set the tone for the series.