Toronto Maple Leafs: The 3 Realities of Another First Round Exit

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It’s been a fun run for the Toronto Maple Leafs this season but we may be only two weeks away from another heartbreak.

As much as it pains me to write this, the Toronto Maple Leafs could very well lose once again in the First Round of the playoffs.

Are the Leafs better than the Tampa Bay Lightning? Yes, they are. However, their opposition has proven year-over-year that regardless of who they play, they’ll win.

Since the start of the 2020 NHL Playoffs, the Lightning are 11-1 in playoff series’. They won 11 consecutive series, including two Stanley Cup’s, before finally losing in six games to the Colorado Avalanche last summer.

This is an organization that was only two wins away from winning three straight Stanley Cup’s, so the fact that the Leafs have to face them once again should be a scary thought.

One of these years, the Leafs will breakthrough and finally win a series and it could be this season, but history would suggest otherwise. Whether this team is up 3-1 in a series, or has a third period lead in Game 6 with a 3-2 series lead, they find a way to lose.

So, why in the world would anything be different this year?

If the team falters, reality will set in for this organization because they clearly can’t go another year with the same group and expect a different result.

Here are three realities of a Toronto Maple Leafs First Round exit.

William Nylander #88 of the Toronto Maple Leafs shoots past the defense of Erik Cernak #81 of the Tampa Bay Lightning (Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images) /

No. 1: William Nylander gets traded

He may be one of the NHL’s best offensive players at the moment, but if the Leafs lose in the First Round, it’ll probably be because Nylander was afraid to go into the corner or was beaten on a puck battle.

If Toronto loses, the team can’t bring back the same core-four forwards and the only logical choice would be to trade Nylander. Based on his contract, he’s the easiest player to move and could fetch a huge return.

Although you may want to move John Tavares instead, he has a no-trade-clause so that’s not going to happen. As for Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, that would be like trading Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen in their prime, so that would be a terrible decision.

A Nylander trade would not only open up $7M in cap-space but it make this team look a lot different, depending on where they used his money. Maybe they search for a number-one defenseman or goaltender, or instead find another forward who plays a different style.

Either way, if the Leafs lose, Nylander is gone.

Nov 21, 2021; Elmont, New York, USA; Toronto Maple Leafs right wing Mitchell Marner . Mandatory Credit: Tom Horak-USA TODAY Sports /

No. 2: Matthews Won’t Sign Extension This Summer

If you’re Auston Matthews, and you lose again, why in the world would you choose to stay in Toronto when you can test free agency and play anywhere you want?

It’s clear that Matthews loves playing in Toronto but at what point, do you say enough is enough? This is arguably the best team he’s played on in his career, so if they can’t get it done with this roster, why would we expect them to do it another year?

This hasn’t been talked about a lot lately, but Matthews definitely won’t want to sign his extension after another first round exit, but instead would choose to wait until the summer of 2024 to make a decision.

This reality is the biggest reason why the Leafs need to win against the Tampa Bay Lightning. IF Matthews can help get this team over the hump, he will turn into a God in Toronto, so that will tremendously help the chances of him wanting to re-sign here.

However, if Toronto fails again, don’t expect him to sign an extension this summer.

Feb 11, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports /

No. 3: Kyle Dubas and Sheldon Keefe Get Fired

This is a funny reality because all Kyle Dubas and Sheldon Keefe have done in their tenure in Toronto, is win. I know it hasn’t translated into Leafs playoff success yet, but they won a Calder Cup together with the Marlies and have been regular season warriors for the past few years.

Winning in the playoffs is everything and they haven’t passed that test yet with the Leafs, but continuing to set franchise records in winning percentage should mean something. However, in a crazy hockey market, it feels like this could be their last year together if things go sideways.

Keefe still has term, but for all we know, this is Dubas’ last season under contract. He’s been a “lame-duck GM” all season and there haven’t been any reports that he signed an extension during the regular season.

After years of losing in the first round, it seems eminent that Dubas will get fired if this team loses to Tampa Bay and since him and Keefe have always been a package deal, they would probably fire Keefe at the same time as Dubas and start fresh.

The Dubas-Keefe combo works and if they got fired, another organization would hire them in a second, so in my opinion, firing them would be a terrible decision. But, as the old saying goes, “you can’t fire the players”, so the GM and head coach are usually first to go.

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All of these realities make the Leafs a worse team, so let’s hope the organization doesn’t have to think about doing anything and the team just wins in the First Round and goes on a long playoff-run, instead.

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