Toronto Maple Leafs: Should Management Take the Fall if the Leafs Fail?

Many fans of the Toronto Maple Leafs are adamant that Kyle Dubas (and perhaps Brendan Shanahan) should be replaced if the team doesn’t find at least some success in the upcoming playoffs.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have put together a team that has consistently been near the top of the regular season standings for several years.

Unfortunately, the playoffs are a different creature altogether. The question is “why haven’t the Toronto Maple Leafs won a playoff round during Dubas’ tenure as GM?”

Lack of toughness? Not experienced enough? Substandard goaltending? Poor coaching? Too much cap space invested in the “Big 4”? Bad luck?

Toronto Maple Leafs and Playoff Failure

A lack of grit is often mentioned as a reason for failure.  The the additions of Ryan O’Reilly, Noel Acciari, Luke Schenn, Jake McCabe and Sam Lafferty add some much-needed sandpaper to the lineup, but the Leafs have also added Jake Muzzin, Nick Foligno and other similar players to the lineup in the past.

Going back a few years, it was easy to blame playoff failures on a lack of experience. The core of Toronto’s lineup (other than John Tavares) had not yet been hardened by the bitter pill of defeat.

Recent Stanley Cup champions such as Colorado, Tampa Bay and Washington all suffered varying levels of failure before finally capturing the big prize.  Most teams have to grow into the ability to win when it counts.

Will an accumulation of prior pain finally pay dividends this spring?

Toronto’s playoff goaltending over the last five years or so can be summed up as “adequate”.

No Leaf goalie has stood on his head to win the team a series, but neither can any series loss be pinned solely on poor goaltending.

Stud goaltenders are hard to find, and almost impossible to pry away from other teams via trades. Dubas’ inability to provide the team with a showstopper in net is mostly due to market realities – they just aren’t available.

Dubas made bets this year on Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov, which have turned out better than some fans expected. Further, the organization has so far been rewarded by a patient approach with “goalie-of-the-near-future” Joseph Woll, who may be playoff tested sooner than anticipated.

Turning to coaching, is Sheldon Keefe part of the problem? Structurally, Keefe is a very good coach. His systems have resulted in very good powerplay and penalty-killing results, and the team’s  defensive has consistently ranked in the top 5 this season. He appears to have good relationships with most of his players. One burning question is whether or not he has “lost the room” to some extent. This does not seem to be the case, but the upcoming playoffs may answer that.

Lastly, after paying Matthews/Tavares/Marner/Nylander, is there enough cap left, or is it impossible to win with such a “weakened” supporting cast?  This top-heavy approach may be unusual, but Dubas has done an admirable job signing young players on ELC’s and cheap veterans  to round out the roster.  The mix of skills may or may not be correct, but all teams have that challenge.

It takes a lot of things going right, plus a little bit of luck, in order to go far in the playoffs. If the Leafs ultimately come up short one more time, front-office heads will likely roll.

However, Dubas has done everything possible to increase the team’s chances.  At the end of the day, the players on the ice are the ones that have to get it done.