Toronto Maple Leafs: Ilya Samsonov Hasn’t Won Playoff Starting Job

Ilya Samsonov has been the best goaltender for the Toronto Maple Leafs thus far but it shouldn’t gurantee him the start for Game 1 of the playoffs.

When you look back at the Toronto Maple Leafs goaltenders over the past five years, they’ve been good, but nothing better than that. Freddie Andersen and Jack Campbell were NHL All-Star’s,  deservingly so, but when it was time to win a big game, they didn’t deliver.

The fans loved both of them and it feels like they’re currently feeling the same sentiment towards Ilya Samsonov. The 26-year-old is on a one-year deal with the Leafs, so it’s quite possible that this will be his first and last season with Toronto, but the fanbase always has a soft-spot for the goaltender.

With a 23-8-2 record, 2.41 GAA and .915 SV%, Samsonov’s stats would suggest that he’s the best goalie on the roster. Not only that, but as James Tanner alluded to in his recent article, “Samsonov’s high-danger save percentage is .898, and is the best in the NHL.”

That’s an important stat to showcase because it’s basically saying that of the shots that are most likely to go in the net, Samsonov is the best at stopping those. Every goalie is going to allow a weird goal that bounces off three players and goes in the back of the net, but on those shots that he can control in the most difficult situations, he’s the best.

Matt Murray Should Still Start Game 1 of the Playoffs for Toronto Maple Leafs

However, here’s the thing about stats, especially regular season stats. They don’t matter at all in the playoffs.

Every regular season stat needs to be thrown out because when Game 1 of the playoffs start, the 82-game sample size that just occured doesn’t matter and I’d rather have a player who’s delivered in previous big games, than one who hasn’t.

I’m not saying that Matt Murray is Carey Price, but let’s just look at Price as an example. Although there wasn’t really a debate on who was going to be the Game 1 starter for Montreal during the 2019-20 season, many experts were worried about how he played during the regular season and thought the Leafs could sweep the Canadiens in the playoffs.

After positing a .909 SV% and 2.79 GAA, Price wasn’t himself, but when the playoffs started that flipped. He turned back into the goalie that he always is in the playoffs and posted a .936 SV% and 1.78 GAA, leading the Canadiens to the Stanley Cup Finals. (stats: espn.com)

We know that Murray’s stats aren’t as good as Samsonov’s this regular season, but his playoff stats are fantastic and reliable. He has a career 2.18 GAA and .921 SV%, including one Stanley Cup run where he finished with a 1.70 GAA and .937 SV%.

With two Stanley Cup rings, when it comes to big games, Murray’s shown that he can deliver.

Samsonov may be better right now, but it should be Murray who leads the way during Game 1, with Samsonov being an insurance plan. If the Leafs falter and Murray plays bad for the first two games, then shake things up with Samsonov but I don’t think he’ll be the reason why (or if) they lose.

The Toronto Maple Leafs need a goalie they can rely on and someone who’s been there before and Murray should be that goalie for them when they start the playoffs.