Toronto Maple Leafs: Mathematical Probabilities of All Playoff Matchups

If the season were to end today, the Toronto Maple Leafs would be walking into the Stanley Cup playoffs. Although, they can’t get too comfortable in the regular season or postseason.

We will explore what the math says Toronto’s playoff journey will look like alongside the rest of the NHL. This is your breakdown of every series from Round 1 through to the Stanley Cups Finals.

Metropolitan Division

According to Playoff Status, the opening round would have some exciting matchups. The Carolina Hurricanes have an 81-percent chance of winning the Metropolitan Division. That would mean that they are extremely likely to have home-ice advantage for the first round.

At this time, the Canes look like they’ll be facing off against either the Buffalo Sabres or New York Rangers. There is a 27-percent chance it’s the Sabres and a 20-percent chance it’s the Rangers. Let’s assume it’s Carolina vs Buffalo.

That takes us to the New Jersey Devils. They have a 67-percent shot at finishing second in the Metropolitan Division. This is where the Rangers appear like they’ll be entering the postseason. They have a 72-percent chance at finishing third in the division, giving them a first-round battle with the Devils as their prize.

Atlantic Division

It’s all but guaranteed that the Boston Bruins are going to win the Atlantic Division. They have greater than a 99-percent chance of making it happen. Their incredible record will give them home-ice advantage through the entire Stanley Cup playoffs.

The Bruins will see the eighth seed. It’s unclear right now who will fill this space. However, the Sabres have the highest odds at 22-percent. If they’re busy playing the Hurricanes, expect either the Pittsburgh Penguins, Detroit Red Wings, or the New York Islander to take on the big bad Bruins. They have 17, 16, and 16-percent odds respectively.

The Toronto Maple Leafs

At this point, it’s clear that the Maple Leafs will see the Tampa Bay Lightning. It looked like these two clubs were on a collision path for much of the season. The biggest question now is who will have home-ice advantage. That will belong to whichever of the pair finishes with a better record. Currently, the odds are in favour of the Lightning.

With the Leafs seeking revenge against the Bolts, ensuring a potential Game 7 is at home would be extremely helpful. Currently, Tampa has 52-percent odds at finishing second in the Atlantic Division and picking up home ice in the opening round, compared to Toronto’s 48-percent chances.