Toronto Maple Leafs: Mathematical Probabilities of All Playoff Matchups

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If the season were to end today, the Toronto Maple Leafs would be walking into the Stanley Cup playoffs. Although, they can’t get too comfortable in the regular season or postseason.

We will explore what the math says Toronto’s playoff journey will look like alongside the rest of the NHL. This is your breakdown of every series from Round 1 through to the Stanley Cups Finals.

Metropolitan Division

According to Playoff Status, the opening round would have some exciting matchups. The Carolina Hurricanes have an 81-percent chance of winning the Metropolitan Division. That would mean that they are extremely likely to have home-ice advantage for the first round.

At this time, the Canes look like they’ll be facing off against either the Buffalo Sabres or New York Rangers. There is a 27-percent chance it’s the Sabres and a 20-percent chance it’s the Rangers. Let’s assume it’s Carolina vs Buffalo.

That takes us to the New Jersey Devils. They have a 67-percent shot at finishing second in the Metropolitan Division. This is where the Rangers appear like they’ll be entering the postseason. They have a 72-percent chance at finishing third in the division, giving them a first-round battle with the Devils as their prize.

Atlantic Division

It’s all but guaranteed that the Boston Bruins are going to win the Atlantic Division. They have greater than a 99-percent chance of making it happen. Their incredible record will give them home-ice advantage through the entire Stanley Cup playoffs.

The Bruins will see the eighth seed. It’s unclear right now who will fill this space. However, the Sabres have the highest odds at 22-percent. If they’re busy playing the Hurricanes, expect either the Pittsburgh Penguins, Detroit Red Wings, or the New York Islander to take on the big bad Bruins. They have 17, 16, and 16-percent odds respectively.

The Toronto Maple Leafs

At this point, it’s clear that the Maple Leafs will see the Tampa Bay Lightning. It looked like these two clubs were on a collision path for much of the season. The biggest question now is who will have home-ice advantage. That will belong to whichever of the pair finishes with a better record. Currently, the odds are in favour of the Lightning.

With the Leafs seeking revenge against the Bolts, ensuring a potential Game 7 is at home would be extremely helpful. Currently, Tampa has 52-percent odds at finishing second in the Atlantic Division and picking up home ice in the opening round, compared to Toronto’s 48-percent chances.

A general view of the rink in the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

The Western Conference doesn’t have as clear a picture as the East.

Pacific Division

The Vegas Golden Knights have had a strong season and it appears as though they’ll benefit to the tune of clinching the top seed in the Pacific Division. They have 45-percent odds at it.

There’s a log jam to see who will play the Golden Knights. Both the Calgary Flames and Minnesota Wild share a 14-percent chance at it. The Edmonton Oilers aren’t far off with a 13-percent chance. The Seattle Kraken, Nashville Predators, and Los Angeles Kings all have a 10-percent chance to play Vegas.

Earning the second seed in the Pacific is very much up for grabs. While the Kings look poised to take it with 26-percent odds, the Kraken have 24-percent odds and the Oilers 22-percent.

Whichever team doesn’t clinch second should expect to play the club that does. That means, there’s a good chance that the Oilers and Kings will be seeing each other to start the playoffs with Los Angeles having home-ice advantage.

Central Division

The top seed in the Central Division looks to be the defending Stanley Cup Champions, the Colorado Avalanche. They have a 42-percent chance to finish first in the division. Their opponent isn’t clear. The Oilers have 16-percent, Flames 13-percent, Kraken 13-percent, Kings 12-percent, and the Wild 12-percent odds to see the Avs in Round 1. If the Oilers and Kings are occupied with one another then it looks like the Flames or Kraken may be headed to Colorado.

The Winnipeg Jets and Dallas Stars are battling for the second and third seeds in the Central Division. They both have 27-percent odds of grabbing the second seed. Expect these two clubs to face off when the playoffs begin.

Toronto Maple Leafs’ Ryan O’Reilly with the St. Louis Blues holding the Stanley Cup (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) /

The Expected winners from their respective brackets move on to Round 2.

Eastern Conference

Between the Canes and Sabres, Carolina is expected to prevail. They have a 60-percent chance at the second round. They can expect to play the Devils who have a 51-percent chance of escaping the Rangers.

This means the Hurricanes would go head-to-head with the Devils. Carolina would have the benefit of home ice to start that series.

The Bruins have an 87-percent probability to make the second round. In fact, they have the best odds in the NHL to make it out of the opening round. They’ll be looking at facing off against either the Lightning or Maple Leafs.

The odds are in the favour of the team who gets home ice advantage. Unless things change, that’s currently the Lightning. They have a 52-percent chance of beating the Maple Leafs. The Buds, on the other hand, have a 45-percent chance of being victorious.

This is not what Leafs’ fans want to read after having such a long postseason success drought. In order to help the team’s chances when the games matter most, Toronto would benefit from racking up regular season points and put themselves in a better position to make the second round.

Western Conference

The Golden Knights have a 33-percent chance of making it to Round 2. They can expect to play one of the Kraken, Kings, or Oilers. They have 26, 25, and 23-percent probabilities respectively of moving on.

The other bracket looks as if it’s going to be Colorado hosting Winnipeg. The Avs have a 30-percent chance of moving on compared to the Jets’ 29-percent probability. The next greatest odds for this matchup is actually still with a battle between these two franchises. The difference would just be who gets home ice advantage.

An NHL logo displaying unity and equality (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images) /

Conference Championships

The Eastern Conference continues to have a clearer picture than out west. That’s mostly due to the Bruins’ dominance. They continue to have the best odds and power through the playoffs.

The probability of Boston playing in the Eastern Conference Championship is a whopping 64-percent. That means that they’re the overwhelming favourite to defeat either the Maple Leafs or Lightning.

Tampa is holding onto a 17-percent chance of toppling the Bruins. Toronto has a 13-percent chance of making it to the third round.

The Bruins are most likely to play against the Hurricanes. Carolina owns 42-percent odds followed by the Devils at 32-percent and the Rangers at 14 percent.

In the West, the numbers point to multiple different potential matchups. The Golden Knights have 31-percent odds to make it past their Round 2 bracket. That’s followed by the Kraken at 22-percent, Kings at 20-percent, and Oilers at 16-percent.

One of them will likely face either the Avalanche or the Jets. There are 28-percent odds that say Colorado will make it and 27 percent that point to it being Winnipeg. That’s followed by the Stars at 16-percent and the Wild at 15-percent odds.

Stanley Cup Finals

Unsurprisingly, the Bruins have the best odds of playing in the Stanley Cup finals. Their odds are 44-percent at being in that series. The Canes own the second-best odds at a significant drop off of 19-percent. That’s followed by the Devils at 13-percent, Lightning at 8-percent and Leafs at 6-percent.

The West remains tighter right up to the finals. There is a 17-percent chance that the Western Conference is represented by the Golden Knights. The Avalanche and Jets both share a 15-percent chance of making it. They’re then followed by Kraken at 12-percent, Kings at 11-percent, and Oilers at 9-percent odds.

The Stanley Cup is presented on the ice after the Colorado Avalanche defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 2022 NHL Stanley Cup Final (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images) /

Stanley Cup Winner

The math might point to the most likely scenarios and who to expect to win but there’s never any certainty in sports. That’s why the numbers drop as the playoffs drag on.

The Eastern Conference is expected to hoist this year’s Stanley Cup. The numbers say that the conference has three teams who are favoured to win it all. They’re led by the Bruins who hold strong 35-percent odds of capturing hockey’s biggest prize. That’s followed by the Canes who have a 13-percent chance of winning and an 8-percent chance that it’ll be the Devils to become Stanley Cup champions.

The Western Conference’s best hope is the Golden Knights. They currently have 6-percent odds to hoist Lord Stanley’s Mug. That’s followed by the Jets and Avalanche at 5-percent each. Even the Lightning shares the same 5-percent probability.

The Maple Leafs follow just behind. As it stands, they have 4-percent odds at ending their losing streak and capturing their first championship since 1967.

The hope is that with the acquisition of Ryan O’Reilly and the team firing on all cylinders the Maple Leafs can defy the odds. They have the talent and players to make it happen. If the team can remain healthy and find cohesion with their new-look lineup, there’s no reason to think that Toronto couldn’t beat any team in the NHL.

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That may happen to be an overly optimistic belief considering what the math says, but it’s why they play the games.

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