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Toronto Maple Leafs: Thoughts on O’Reilly’s Usage + Sabres Game Preview

By James Tanner

TORONTO, CANADA - FEBRUARY 18: Ryan O'Reilly #90 skates in his 1st game as a Toronto Maple Leaf against the Montreal Canadiens during an NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on February 18, 2023 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Maple Leafs defeated the Canadiens 5-1. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
TORONTO, CANADA - FEBRUARY 18: Ryan O'Reilly #90 skates in his 1st game as a Toronto Maple Leaf against the Montreal Canadiens during an NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on February 18, 2023 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Maple Leafs defeated the Canadiens 5-1. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images) /
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The Toronto Maple Leafs will be taking on the Buffalo Sabres tonight in Buffalo.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are coming off an annoying loss in Chicago where they were dominant, but goalied (in both ways) and refereed into submission.

No biggie.

Tonight they will be looking for Ryan O’Reilly’s first goal as a Leafs, and the resumption of Auston Matthews being Auston Matthews and not an unlucky imposter scoring at a lower rate than Nylander.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Buffalo Sabres

The Leafs will once again be going with Ryan O’Reilly on the left wing.  This is a terrible move.  Tavares and O’Reilly seem slow together, and it is far better to have O’Reilly at 3C than Kampf.

Engvall has untapped offensive talent, and is elite defensively.  He is the perfect partner in crime for O’Reilly, and it will be interesting to see how long Keefe goes without realizing that. (stats naturalstattrick.com).

Here is Marner and Tavares stats when paired together, with Marner/O’Reilly listed in parenthesis:

53% CF (50%)

53.% Shot-Percentage   (50%)

57% Scoring Chance-Percentage (51%)

55% Expected Goals Percentage (45%)

With the obvious caveat that it’s just two games, and that O’Reilly is learning a new system, I still think it’s worth pointing out that he’s made the Leafs second line worse over the last two games.

The stats are bad, and visually they haven’t been too hot either.  The fact is, Tavares/Marner do not need help, and only a truly elite upgrade would make a difference anyways. Meanwhile, O’Reilly is an actual upgrade on what they use on the 3rd line, so Keefe’s thinking here is really hard to respect.

On top of just using  O’Reilly on the wrong line, they have him at centre, and Tavares is better than he is, so that immediately is a downgrade.

As for the rest of the lineup, I have to say I am loving Aston-Reese with Acciari and Kerfoot.  Kerfoot is an expensive fourth line option, but also just an incredible piece of depth at that position.

Would it be better to replace him with literally anyone for the league minimum and channel his money into an elite player? Yes, no doubt.  But, that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have marginal value.  In this case, the Leafs have an advantage over every single team in the NHL’s 4th line.

That sounds great, but it’s probably not worth more than a win all season long.  Much better to trade Kerfoot and play Anderson, but I’ll enjoy it while it lasts.

Next. What ALL-IN Would Actually Look Like. dark

Sandin remains day-to-day and Samsonov appears like he’s going to start.

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