Toronto Maple Leafs: Ryan O’Reilly Trade Grade Depends on What’s Next

The Toronto Maple Leafs make a potentially incredible trade on Friday night, bringing In Ryan O’Reilly.

Specifically, the Toronto Maple Leafs added a universally beloved player who checks every single box, from talent to past success, to leadership, defense, and scoring….and they get him without giving up any roster players, and none of their top prospects, and at a 75% discount.

It is an incredible trade that I don’t think anyone can criticize.

Except for me, a tiny bit.

Toronto Maple Leafs Trade for Ryan O’Reilly

It’s almost annoying to say this, because the Toronto Maple Leafs now probably have the best 4 centre combo in the NHL (by about seventeen miles if O’Reilly gets back to form), but unless they add an elite player (probably a defenseman) on top of this, then I don’t think it’s enough. (I don’t think it’s enough of an effort by management, but I do think this roster could win regardless).

A Player Card from @Jfresh shows O’Reilly as better than 83% of players over the last three years.  A different player card from a different site shows only this year, and he’s had negative value.

I wrote that Ryan O’Reilly was not someone the Leafs should go after, because he is representative of the kind of magical thinking you see in the NHL around this time of year.  That sort of thinking grants magical powers to experience, non-defined leadership (does a great leader get a DUI?) and players who play a certain style.

The Leafs have been down this road multiple times, but what they have never done is get the best player available. 

Timo Meier, Dylan Larkin, Erik Karlson and Jackob Chychrun would all help the Toronto Maple Leafs more than Ryan O’Reilly whose current game is a lot closer to Pierre Engvall’s than I imagine anyone else is comfortable saying out loud right now.

That said, if Ryan O’Reilly is healthy, and excited, and can get back to where he was just a short time ago, then it could be an amazing trade. Certainly there is that potential.

But what really makes this trade good, and what renders my criticism void, is that it was so cheap that the risk  vs reward is clearly in favor of making this deal.

75% retained, and coming with a a decent bottom-of-the-lineup grinder in Noel Acciari (one who could offer a different look for sure on the 4th line) and a prospect (never heard of him, but it’s something) makes this trade pretty much above criticism.

The Leafs paid a cost of four draft picks, but only one of them was a first rounder.  They didn’t trade Matthews Knies, and they still have next year’s first to spend if they want.

If the Leafs go out and get a player that makes Ryan O’Reilly the second best acquisition of the trade deadline, then this trade gets an A+.

If this is the best they have to offer, it’s not good enough, but it’s still so cheap I couldn’t go below a B+ either way.  If O’Reilly is healthy and can get back to where he was, I’ll be impressed, but I’m not buying into any magical thinking about the way he plays the game the right way, and I could not care less about the fact he won a Cup or even a Conn Smythe Trophy back before he declined.

The best thing Ryan O’Reilly can do is remind Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner that he never made it out of Round 1 in the first ten years of his career, and yet, he is still regarded today as a Playoff Warrior, and The Right Type of Player.