Toronto Maple Leafs: Ilya Samsonov Shows He Should Probably Start More Games

The Toronto Maple Leafs had an impressive come-from-behind win on Tuesday against Florida.

The Toronto Maple Leafs had about 30 power-plays, and doubled the Panthers in shots in a very exciting first period, but somehow found themselves down 3-2 despite allowing just seven shots on net.

Toronto Maple Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe made the dubious decision not to pull Matt Murray after the first, but when Florida scored their fourth goal on eight shots, he had no other choice.

It’s hard to complain about how the Leafs were playing, and even if they were doing badly, I don’t care if they allowed eight breakaways, four goals on eight shots is no good.

After that though, they put in Samsonov and made one of their best comebacks of the season.

William Nylander scored a goal off his head, he missed a penalty shot, and then scored one of the best OT goals you will ever see.

But let’s talk about Ilya Samsonov, the quote machine, and apparent star goalie.

Toronto Maple Leafs Ilya Samsonov Earning More Starts

The NHL has four star goalies, goalies who are generally consistent year to year: Vasilevskiy,  Hellebuyck, Sorokin and Binnington.

You can add Igor Shesterkin to that list for now, because what he did last year was spectacular. But in the most general terms, goalies are not consistent, and anyone capable of making the NHL at that position, can have  a star-level season.

If you disagree with me here, hands up everyone who thought the top 4 5v5 save percentage goalies halfway though this season would be Linus Ulmark, Filip Gustavson, Juuse Sauros and Stuart Skinner.

One theory of NHL goaltending is that all goals let in on easy shots are pretty much random.  This makes sense if you think about it – these are the best 60 or so goalies in the entire world, and they should have no problem with easy shots. When an easy shot does go in, it’s obviously not a talent issue when you’re talking NHL goalies. Goalies low-danger save percentages do tend to fluctuate.

Slightly more repeatable is the high-danger save percentage.  Less luck involved there,  more skill.

And as I’m sure you already guess by know, Ilya Samsonov leads the NHL with a .906   5v5 save percentage against high-danger shots. The only guy ahead of him has played just seven games. That means he’s currently the best goalie in the league (for now) and the Leafs should start playing him much more than they have been. (all stats natureaslstattrick.com).

Also, Samsonov has only lost one game this year in regulation. His record is a ridiculous 13-1-4.

It’s not like Matt Murray has played badly, but Samsonov has been a demon. He should be starting three out of every four games for the next little while.

If *when* he falters, go back to Murray.  It’s not that complicated. But when a goalie is hot, you’ve got to take advantage.